416
FXUS64 KEWX 230521
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1221 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Morning ceilings gradually lifted today, making way for partly
cloudy conditions areawide. Radar imagery shows that current shower
activity is well to the south of our area, in line with our current
low pop forecast.

While upper level ridging over the area is expected to persist,
models are consistent in bringing a surface low pressure system
located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico into northeast Mexico
tomorrow. The will allow for increasing low level moisture to work
its way back into southern portions of our CWA, bringing with it a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon,
generally along and south of the Highway 90 corridor.

The Hill Country will see temperatures fall into the upper 60s
overnight, but a slight warning trend is expected Sunday as
temperatures return to near climatological normal for this time of
year. The increasing low level moisture mentioned earlier will
result in muggy overnight low temperatures later Sunday into early
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A 592 to 594 dm ridge aloft dominates the weather pattern for much
of next week as it stretches across the state of Texas and into the
Desert Southwest. Isolated convection remains possible during Monday
afternoon for locations south of I-10 and east of I-37 where PWATs
stay elevated up to near 2 inches with some lingering influence from
the tropical disturbance advancing inland into Mexico from off the
Bay of Campeche. The PWATS then decline into and through midweek
with minimal rain chances prevailing. The ridge aloft could then
weaken just slightly from late week into the start of next weekend
to better allow a stray to isolated shower/storm chance with the sea
breeze across the coastal plains. Otherwise, returning heat becomes
the main weather story as the temperatures slowly rise and the dew
points stay a bit elevated and struggle to mix out efficiently in
response to the latest soil moisture levels from the recent rainfall
across the region. We will closely monitor the heat indices as they
push near or into Heat Advisory Criteria (105 to 110 degree range)
across portions of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

With the exception of some patchy MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight and
Sunday morning, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.
An increase in tropical moisture is expected across South Texas,
which will allow for isolated SHRA/-TSRA development during the day
on Sunday south of a 5T9-SSF-T20 line. Better coverage is expected
overnight and Sunday well south of the area, into Deep South Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  75  95  77 /  10   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  75  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  79  99  80 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  75  96  77 /  10   0  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  73  95  75 /  10   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  75  94  76 /  10   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  76  95  77 /  10   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  77  97  77 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...03
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...76