Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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676 FXUS64 KEWX 121918 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level shortwave trough moving across southeast TX and generating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from our Coastal Plains to the Hill Country. Convection will likely continue through the afternoon while the upper shortwave moves away from the region. Tonight the subtropical ridge will build over TX from the west. This will bring an end to the unsettled pattern we`ve been experiencing over the last few days. Dry weather will settle over the region for tonight through Thursday night. Low temperatures tonight and thursday night will be about the same as we`ve had during the early part of the week. Highs Thursday will be warmer with less cloud cover and more sunshine. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be expected through the first half of the long term period. Lower to middle 90s will be most common over the Hill Country and I-35 corridor on Friday, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s this weekend in the same areas. Elsewhere, expect highs in the mid to upper 90s outside of the Rio Grande Plains where it will continue to top out in the 100- 105 range through the weekend. Our rain chances will remain cut off this weekend as weak ridging sets up shop over the region, but it will be short-lived as it migrates eastward and settles over the southeastern CONUS early next week. This should open the door for slightly cooler afternoons, but mornings will be downright muggy as surface moisture return increases as an area of disturbed weather develops over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. As of this writing, NHC gives it a low chance (30%) of developing in the next 7 days, with the primary impact from the system likely being heavy rainfall. The latest 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center places the eastern half of our CWA within a Slight Risk for heavy precip, while the Coastal Plains are within a Moderate Risk for heavy precip (greater than 4 in 10 chance of seeing heavy rains that could result in flooding) June 20-23. As far as medium range guidance goes, both the GFS and ECMWF develop a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche late this weekend into early next week, with the ECMWF on board with the best chance of tropical development. The latest 12Z members are bullish on this system developing into a weak tropical storm and moving inland over northern Mexico. If this were to occur, we could reap the benefits over the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains in terms of beneficial rainfall. For now, we will continue to monitor trends, and as always, stick to reliable sources of information on the tropics like the National Hurricane Center. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Ceilings have risen to VFR at all terminals and should remain that way for this TAF period. There is a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms this afternoon in the San Antonio and Austin areas, but chances are too low to include in the TAFs. Convection could lower conditions to MVFR briefly. Winds will be 10 kts or less at all airports. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 95 75 96 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 95 73 94 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 96 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 92 73 94 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 103 81 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 92 72 94 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 94 72 95 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 92 74 94 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 76 96 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 96 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...05