656
FXUS64 KEWX 240848
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
348 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A few light showers are noted early this morning over the coastal
plains to just east of the Interstate 35 corridor. These showers are
developing south of a stationary front where the southerly flow in
the low-levels is fairly weak. Southerly flow should decrease as the
early morning hours progress, which should result in a decrease in
activity toward sunrise. Rain chances through the morning hours will
also remain in the forecast generally along and north of the
stationary front over portions of the Hill Country and nearby I-35
corridor. Some upper lift is currently moving in from the west, with
some new convection noted over portions of west central Texas. We
will keep rain chances low (generally 20%) this morning, but should
see an uptick in the coverage of showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening hours as daytime heating aids in the
development of convection. For now, we will keep rain chances in the
20-40% range, but this may need to be boosted slightly pending
convective trends to our northwest. A few of the hi-res models show
some potential for stronger storms to develop across portions of the
Hill Country. While shear will not be overly favorable this far
south, sufficient heating should yield decent CAPE values. This along
with some lift along the remnant frontal boundary and mid-level
disturbances in the southern edge of an upper trough could yield a
setup favorable for a strong storm or two. High temperatures today
will be coolest north of the front, which should keep highs in the
upper 80s across the southern Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country.
Elsewhere, highs will remain above normal, with lower to mid 90s in
the forecast.

Rain chances continue this evening as the above mentioned trough
axis moves through the region. We should see a decrease in activity
from north to south tonight as the trough axis begins to shift to
our east. On Wednesday, northwest flow aloft on the backside of an
upper trough along with a cold front will keep rain chances in the
forecast for most of south central Texas. The exception will be out
west across the southern Edwards Plateau into portions of the Rio
Grande plains. High temperatures will trend downward for a good
portion of the area on Wednesday. However, with the front moving in
late in the day for areas generally along and south of a Del Rio to
San Antonio to Karnes City line, expect another round of highs in
the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Wednesday night returns pleasant evening weather to the area as the
drier air and north breeze will make the air through Thursday night
more seasonal for late September. High pressure still looms large
over West TX up into the central Rockies, and a weakening northerly
flow over Central TX allows for warmer daytime temperatures for
Friday through the weekend. The broader meridional pattern aloft all
but prevents a return of south winds through Monday, so the
relatively milder overnight temperatures will stick around for a
while. Unfortunately the dry pattern with a dominant ridge to the
west looks to hold us into drought for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Clouds are slowly on the increase across the region, but bases are
above MVFR. We could still see some MVFR cigs develop toward sunrise
and have kept this in the forecast for the I-35 sites. We will also
monitor for -SHRA development this morning as a few attempts are
noted on area radars. Conditions should improve back to VFR after
16Z given fairly shallow moisture in the lower levels. With afternoon
heating, some convection may develop across the I-35 sites. For now,
we will address the situation with a PROB30 group for TSRA for the
I-35 sites during the late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  72  90  66 /  40  20  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  70  90  66 /  40  20  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  72  93  66 /  40  20  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            89  69  85  62 /  30  20  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  77  96  68 /  10  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  70  86  63 /  30  20  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  72  94  66 /  20  20  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  70  91  65 /  40  20  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  71  89  65 /  40  20  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  74  93  69 /  30  20  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  74  95  70 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Platt