Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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874 FXUS64 KEWX 261944 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 244 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Our weather today is being dominated by the upper level ridge to the south over Mexico...a trough moving through the Central Plains...and some fast zonal flow in the mid levels across west Texas. Clouds have been stubborn to move out of the region today...waiting for the NW 850mb winds to push them out. As of this writing clouds are still over I-35 and eastward...with nearly clear skies over the Hill Country and the Rio Grande area. The surface trough/dryline is making a surge eastward out west...into Val Verde County and portions of Edwards County. With Temps over 100 and dewpoints dropping fast...issued a Fire Danger Statement as RH should drop below 10 percent later today. That surge of dry air will not really make it past a Fredericksburg to Eagle Pass line...so most of the area will remain in the hazy, hot, smokey airmass. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat warnings remain in effect...although the cloudcover mentioned above is delaying a lot of the hottest temps. There is still a strong likelihood we will hit criteria so no changes to the ongoing look or timing of the heat products. The Advisory/Warning is carried overnight into tomorrow until 8 PM Monday. By this evening look for the clouds to thin before reforming overnight with lows in the 70s...low 80s along the Rio Grande. Another cloudy morning on Monday is expected. Models are still going strong with heat/humidity Monday so everywhere except the Hill Country will remain in the Heat ADV/Warning. Some tweaks may be needed on the overnight shift if the clouds once again look to persist longer into the early afternoon...those few degrees could overall impact the decision making of counties in/out of the Heat products. Will be carrying a 20 pop across most of the zones except the far west sections of Val Verde County Monday afternoon and evening. A few of the models including the GFS are showing convection over our region, likely from a ripple moving across in the upper levels and some meso type boundaries. Confidence is still low of exactly how many people could see storms on Monday. SPC expanded the marginal risk across all of the CWA tomorrow. If any storms do fire...with the intense heat expected...SVR storms would be expected...with some good wind potential. Any convection that does form...should dissipate by the time late evening arrives with Monday night expected to be fairly quiet unless some storm complexes can get going. WPC has painted some qpf over much of the CWA...again likely bullish in areal coverage...but at this point no real great way to tell where a favored area is based on a limited amount of models even showing the activity. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 "Cooler" temperatures are forecast for the extended forecast period with highs in the low to mid 90s across a good portion of the local area and upper 90s to 103 degree range along the Rio Grande. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon into the evening period. Storm development areas preferred are the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, areas along the I-35 corridor and the coastal Plains. Some strong to marginally severe storms are possible especially Tuesday and Wednesday with main hazards being damaging winds and large hail. Can`t ruled out a few rounds of heavy downpours through the period. Expect mostly cloudy to cloudy mornings with clouds breaking in the afternoon for the most part. It looks like Tuesday could stay mostly cloudy all day as mid to upper level moisture prevails over South Central Texas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Clouds have been stubborn to vacate the I-35 corridor early this afternoon. Still hanging onto MVFR SAT/AUS/SSF along with some 5-6SM visby with haze and likely some smoke in there as well. The 850 trough with its NW winds is pushing through the Hill Country and this eventually should get into I35 and allow the MVFR decks to scatter out. Already seeing this trend on Satellite. Out over the far west...a surface trough has pushed through Val Verde County so DRT has gone a westerly wind...eventually will be a N wind by later this afternoon. Skies will remain clear at DRT rest of the day. For tonight...any affect mid level dry air trying to work into the region will not hold...and low clouds should redevelop with MVFR and IFR at SAT/AUS/SSF. Was a little hesitant to bring the clouds into DRT tomorrow morning with the NAM showing a deck...but decided to mention it with a SCT instead. Winds should go fairly light after the sun goes down...return with some light to moderate East and SE tomorrow most areas. Despite a carry of slight pop for Monday across the region, will leave mention of any TS out of the forecast as confidence is too low. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Climate....with record highs tomorrow at SAT/ATT/AUS all at 100...there is a chance that some or all of those could be tied/broken. DRT record is 106...which should be broken. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 99 75 94 / 0 20 20 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 99 74 95 / 0 20 20 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 101 75 96 / 0 20 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 73 97 72 91 / 0 20 20 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 110 81 101 / 0 10 20 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 98 73 93 / 0 10 20 30 Hondo Muni Airport 76 105 75 97 / 0 20 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 100 74 95 / 10 20 20 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 97 75 93 / 10 10 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 101 75 95 / 0 20 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 78 103 76 97 / 0 20 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for Kinney-Maverick-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe- Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Medina-Travis-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...09 Long-Term...17 Aviation...09