Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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932 FXUS64 KEWX 290431 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1131 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 * Level 2 to 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms through late tonight across most areas of South Central Texas. Greatest concerns are damaging straight line winds and large hail. * Heavy rainfall expected with levels 1 and 2 out of 4 risk for flash flooding, especially for our northern and northeastern most counties. * Dangerous heat lingers this afternoon with peak heat indices as high as 110 degrees across our southern most areas. An outflow boundary moved across the Hill Country, the I-35 corridor and over parts of the coastal plains. This outflow generated strong wind gusts and helped with the development of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. We issued earlier a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Hill Country and some of the eastern far counties. We were able to cancel the watch earlier this afternoon for those counties. However, storms started to go up across the San Angelo CWA and that prompted SPC to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Val Verde County until 9 PM. Honestly, hires models have a somewhat idea about the convective outlook for the rest of this afternoon into this evening. With that said, expect storms to continue developing ahead of the dry-line and a cold front over central Texas slowly pushing to the southwest. Expect storms to grow in scale and become strong to severe through late tonight as they push to the southeast as they follow the southeast steering flow. If these storms hold through late tonight, they will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph, and large to very large hail. Can`t rule out an isolated tornado or two. Also, some of these strong to severe thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours that may result in locally minor flash flooding. The storms will move to the east overnight with things drying out to the west. However, the wet pattern continues into Wednesday mainly across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and the coastal plains. Circling back to the third bullet point above, heat index values are likely to reach the 108 to 110 mark for a few hours this afternoon where the Heat Advisory is taking place. However, the outflow boundary mentioned above brought cooler temperatures and dew points across the local area and it is expected to continue to push to the southwest into the western part of the coastal plains and the Rio Grande Plains. We may be able to cancel the Heat Advisory earlier if the outflow trend continues to bring a "cooler and less moist" airmass to the south. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Daily low to medium thunderstorm chances and near normal temperatures are in the forecast through the weekend. The thunderstorm chances are attributed to a combination of factors, including a stationary front across north Texas, a dryline across west Texas, any outflow boundaries that develop from convection each day, and weak impulses/disturbances in the mid/upper level flow. While this particular pattern results in daily chances for rain, the exact locations where the rain will fall remain uncertain due number of factors at play and the nuances of each one. Regardless, daily isolated to scattered convection across the state will help keep temperatures at bay through the weekend due to increased cloud cover and rain cooled air. Guidance shows a slight northward shift of the higher upper level heights into the beginning of next week, which will likely bring a slight warming trend and drier conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across the area, mainly east of I-35 at the start of the period. MVFR ceilings are seen in the wake of this system at I-35 sites, expected to return to VFR during the morning and remain the rest of the day. There are lesser chances for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and will keep a dry forecast for all sites at this time. MVFR ceilings look to return to the area Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 86 72 89 74 / 20 60 40 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 72 88 73 / 20 50 40 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 72 92 74 / 10 60 40 30 Burnet Muni Airport 84 69 85 71 / 20 40 40 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 76 99 79 / 20 50 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 71 86 71 / 20 50 40 30 Hondo Muni Airport 98 72 93 74 / 10 60 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 90 71 90 72 / 20 50 40 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 89 74 89 74 / 20 40 60 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 73 91 75 / 10 60 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 99 74 93 76 / 10 60 20 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...Gale Aviation...27