Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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981 FXUS64 KEWX 211050 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 550 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The center of the Subtropical Ridge begins to shift to the southwest toward Texas today. With the Ridge approaching, subsidence is still minimal while a tropically moist airmass remains. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop with heating. Cannot rule out a few locally heavy downpours. High temperatures remain slightly below normal due to the clouds and increased soil moisture. Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate with loss of heating after sunset this evening. The Subtropical Ridge moves nearly overhead on Saturday bringing a subsident airmass while another tropical disturbance deepens over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. NHC shows a 60% chance of tropical cyclone development. The resultant northeasterly flow aloft will bring a drier airmass over most of our area. Thus, only a few showers and thunderstorms are possible over our far southern areas closer to the deeper moisture. Temperatures warm to near normal under less cloudiness. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The upper level ridge across the eastern U.S. is forecast to gradually expand back west into much of Texas this weekend. To the south of the ridge, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America today. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this system for tropical cyclone development over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The system is expected to move northwest into Mexico late in the weekend and into Monday. Beneath the ridge, the outer fringes of the deeper tropical moisture associated with this system is forecast to make into South Texas, and perhaps as far north as southern areas of our forecast area. If this happens, isolated tropical showers and thunderstorms could develop during the day Sunday and Monday, mainly south of the U.S. 90 and I-10 corridor. The upper level ridge is then forecast to build into the southwest U.S. and amplify Tuesday through Thursday. Low and high temperatures are forecast to increase during this time. Humid conditions are also expected, and with the elevated dew points we will watch closely for heat index values pushing near Heat Advisory Criteria across much of the region Tuesday through Thursday, excluding the Hill Country. The forecast is mostly dry during this time frame. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA develop with heating and have mentioned VCSH/VCTS at all sites for late morning into early evening. IFR/MVFR CIGs mix to SCT VFR by midday, however there may be lower CIGs/VSBYs in SHRA/TSRA. MVFR CIGs return overnight, then mix again to SCT VFR midday Saturday. Easterly winds up to 10 KTs veer to southeasterly tonight into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 92 74 95 73 / 20 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 72 93 71 / 20 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 73 93 71 / 30 20 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 73 92 72 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 92 76 95 77 / 30 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 72 93 72 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 89 73 91 71 / 30 20 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 71 92 70 / 20 20 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 89 73 91 71 / 30 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 74 93 72 / 30 20 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 91 75 93 73 / 30 20 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...76 Aviation...04