Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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805 FXUS64 KEWX 160003 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 703 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Radar and satellite imagery showed isolated showers and thunderstorms moving into the Coastal Plains this morning. South Central Texas will remain positioned along the northern periphery of upper level high pressure located over Mexico. This will allow for minor shortwaves disturbances to track across our area today and again tomorrow. Short term model guidance suggests the potential for a stray shower or thunderstorm later this afternoon east of San Antonio along the I-10 corridor. We can`t rule this out, but POPs and too low to warrant including a mention in the forecast. Overall, warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are forecast this weekend across most of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Some changes will be underway on Monday at the beginning of the long- term portion of the forecast. Deep southeasterly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere will allow for moisture levels to begin to rise. By Monday afternoon precipitable water values will approach 2 inches in our Coastal Plains counties. With this expect to see some isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm there on Monday. Highs will top out in the 90s to near 103 degrees out west. PoPs will mainly remain confined to the Coastal Plains on Tuesday once again with the better moisture remaining there. The forecast for Wednesday into the end of the upcoming work-week depends largely on what occurs in the Gulf of Mexico with moisture related to a potential tropical disturbance. The GFS continues to trend up with a surface trough moving west through our region which would bring some very beneficial rainfall totals to most of the CWA. It has been doing this for several runs and continue to trend wetter, but much of this is dependent on a more northerly development of a surface low, but the GFS may be overdoing things with some convective feedback. Ensemble members during this time frame support enhanced rainfall chances but amounts with the GEFS range from less than a quarter of an inch to perhaps 5 inches. Will have to watch trends closely and individual forecast models will likely continue to have wild swings based on modeled tracks or strength of any closed low. Nevertheless, an increase in moisture is expected which should bring in at least some rain chances to the area for the end of next week. The temperature forecast will also be highly dependent on rain chances and associated cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Onshore winds are deepening over South Central TX, leading to a longer lived period of MVFR cigs from late tonight to late Sunday morning. Some IFR cigs may need to be considered, and a brief period of CIGs was added to the farther inland location of DRT. Winds are also expected to pick up Sunday afternoon over today so some gusts to 30 knots might be seen at DRT with 20-25 knot gusts possible over I-35. Aside from those trends, the usual diurnal trend on wind directions and sky conditions are followed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 96 74 95 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 75 96 / 10 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 74 94 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 105 81 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 95 74 93 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 75 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 96 74 95 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...CM Aviation...18