445
FXUS64 KEWX 151751
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Mostly clear skies are observed over South Central Texas early this
morning. Some low cloud development is expected closer to sunrise
near or just west of the San Antonio metro into portions of the
western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
Plains. Clouds will quickly scatter through the morning with
additional cumulus expected to develop through the afternoon. Today
will be seasonably hot with highs around 100-103 degrees in the west
over the Rio Grande Plains and in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere.
High pressure aloft weakens today as a mid-level shortwave moves
across the central and southern Plains leaving weak flow aloft
through Sunday. Low level moisture increases Sunday bringing another
round of low cloud development in the morning and scattered cumulus
in the afternoon. There is a low chance an isolated shower or
thunderstorm moves into the far eastern Coastal Plains in the
afternoon, with better precipitation chances seen the following
days. Sunday temperatures will be similar to those seen this
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Southeastern States
early next week allowing a plume of tropical moisture to spread into
Texas. We expect showers and thunderstorms as far west as the I-35
corridor on Monday and Tuesday. The Ridge builds back over Texas mid
to late week guiding the plume toward the west with showers and
thunderstorms spreading to the Rio Grande on Wednesday and Thursday.
Models continue to show potential for development of a tropical
system with NHC indicating a 50% chance in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Models maintain consensus on a westward movement into and
across Mexico. There is a potential for enhanced rainfall with PWs
greater than 2 inches, possibly as high as 2.5 inches. However, there
is uncertainty on where. Gusty winds are possible with the stronger
storms. As the clouds and rain spread farther to the west, the above
normal high temperatures gradually fall to near to below normal
during the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Southeast surface winds and VFR conditions will persist at TAF
locations this afternoon and into the evening hours. Similar to this
morning, low cloud development with MVFR ceilings is expected at
KSAT, KSSF, and KAUS between 160800 and 161000. VFR conditions are
expected at KDRT through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  97  77  96 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  96  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  97  75  96 /  10   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  94  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 105  81 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  95  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  96  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  94  75  93 /   0   0   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  97  77  96 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  99  77  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...03
Long-Term...29
Aviation...03