314
FXUS64 KEWX 161120
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
620 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As ridging aloft gradually builds over the area, most of the region
will remain dry and warm today and Tuesday. The exception is across
far southwest areas, in Maverick and Dimmit counties, where isolated
showers will be possible today. This is in an area of deeper
moisture, extending into Mexico and south Texas, and where weak mid
and upper level forcing is still present. Another exception is near
a weak surface boundary that will be draped today and washing out
Tuesday through portions of the northern Hill Country, into the I-35
corridor between Austin and San Antonio, and east along the I-10
corridor. A few CAMs continue to indicated very isolated showers in
this area late this afternoon and evening and again late Tuesday
afternoon along this weak boundary. The aforementioned ridging aloft
will work against any more coverage than that. Given the low
confidence and coverage we will only indicate a silent 10 pop.
Continued warm afternoon temperatures with highs today and Tuesday
in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Upper level ridging over a lower level southerly flow continue mid
to late week. Rain is not forecast due to very low chances. However,
there is a potential for a few showers each day should lower level
moisture be deeper. This is due to the low level jet impinging on
the Edwards Plateau during the early mornings and seabreeze moving
over the Coastal Plains during the late afternoons. The ridging
flattens allowing an upper level trough to move over the Plains
states next weekend. Forcing from the approaching trough and possible
surface boundary could lead to slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday. However, there remains some
uncertainty on the extent of the trough and boundary over our area
making even the slight chances seem generous. Well above average,
summer-like temperatures continue, though trend a little closer to
average next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Some areas of low stratus and fog are occurring early this morning
across the Coastal Plains, roughly around a 2R9-VCT line, and were
producing LIFR conditions. Some patchy stratus was also located out
west, between UVA-DRT, and was producing MVFR ceilings. The fog and
stratus should mix out after 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions through
the TAF period for most areas across south-central Texas. Isolated
SHRAs will be possible near and south of a 5T9-COT line today. In
addition, there is a 10% chance of isolated SHRAs from 22Z-03Z near a
weak surface boundary through the Hill Country into the inland
Coastal Plains, roughly near a T82-BAZ-T20 line. Confidence and
coverage is too low to include in the SAT or AUS TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  72  97  73 /  10   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  74  99  75 /  10  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  75  96  79 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  72  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  72  97  72 /  10  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  72  96  73 /  10   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  75  97  76 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  75  98  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...04
Aviation...76