094
FXUS64 KEWX 160538
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Radar and satellite imagery showed isolated showers and
thunderstorms moving into the Coastal Plains this morning.

South Central Texas will remain positioned along the northern
periphery of upper level high pressure located over Mexico. This
will allow for minor shortwaves disturbances to track across our
area today and again tomorrow. Short term model guidance suggests
the potential for a stray shower or thunderstorm later this
afternoon east of San Antonio along the I-10 corridor. We can`t rule
this out, but POPs and too low to warrant including a mention in the
forecast. Overall, warmer than normal temperatures and dry
conditions are forecast this weekend across most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Some changes will be underway on Monday at the beginning of the long-
term portion of the forecast. Deep southeasterly flow in the lower
levels of the atmosphere will allow for moisture levels to begin to
rise. By Monday afternoon precipitable water values will approach 2
inches in our Coastal Plains counties. With this expect to see some
isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm there on
Monday. Highs will top out in the 90s to near 103 degrees out west.
PoPs will mainly remain confined to the Coastal Plains on Tuesday
once again with the better moisture remaining there. The forecast
for Wednesday into the end of the upcoming work-week depends largely
on what occurs in the Gulf of Mexico with moisture related to a
potential tropical disturbance. The GFS continues to trend up with a
surface trough moving west through our region which would bring some
very beneficial rainfall totals to most of the CWA. It has been
doing this for several runs and continue to trend wetter, but much of
this is dependent on a more northerly development of a surface low,
but the GFS may be overdoing things with some convective feedback.

Ensemble members during this time frame support enhanced rainfall
chances but amounts with the GEFS range from less than a quarter of
an inch to perhaps 5 inches. Will have to watch trends closely and
individual forecast models will likely continue to have wild swings
based on modeled tracks or strength of any closed low. Nevertheless,
an increase in moisture is expected which should bring in at least
some rain chances to the area for the end of next week. The
temperature forecast will also be highly dependent on rain chances
and associated cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

All terminals are VFR to start this period. Southeasterly winds
continue to bring moister air to the region. Looking for MVFR
ceilings to develop overnight. VFR conditions will return by late
morning. Winds will become gusty during the afternoon and gusts could
continue into the evening. MVFR ceilings will redevelop Sunday
night/Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  77  96  76 /   0   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  74  95  75 /   0   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  75  96  75 /   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  74  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          105  81 103  80 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  74  93  74 /   0   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             98  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  74  95  74 /   0   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  75  93  75 /   0   0  30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  77  96  77 /   0   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           99  77  98  77 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...03
Long-Term...29
Aviation...05