199
FXUS64 KEWX 281052
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
552 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Just a few high clouds at the present hour across South-Central
Texas with temperatures in the 80s. Lows later tonight into the
morning hours will be on the warm side, in the upper 70s to near 80
degrees. The main issue today will be the heat with highs back in
the upper 90s to near 103 degrees for most of the area. Humidity
values will remain elevated and expect Heat Index values to be at or
above 108 degrees for locations along and east of the I35 corridor.
The current Heat Advisory remains in effect and did not need any
changes to the product. There is a very low chance of a shower in
the extreme southeastern counties this afternoon, but overall
chances were too low to mention anything specific in the official
forecast for now.

Not much change is expected tonight into tomorrow with warm
overnight periods and hot afternoons. Will likely need another Heat
Advisory tomorrow and one could be issued this afternoon for
Saturday. No rain is expected tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

We are now starting to get into the hottest days of the year as we
get ready to turn the calendar over to the month of July. Heat
headlines are likely most days, with heat indices in the 105-110
range most days and highs in the upper 90s to 103. We can thank a
500mb Subtropical High in place over the south central United States
along with 200mb heights at the all time climatological maximum over
most of Texas via the NAEFS ESAT tables. Expect the heat to actually
worsen late this weekend into early next week as the ridge builds
further east over Texas. As soils continue to dry out from Spring
rains, the humidity may start to back off a bit, but still enough to
give us those elevated heat indices for most locations.

By late week and into the 4th of July Holiday, the ridge should start
to slide further east into the southeastern CONUS, with high temps
backing off perhaps a few degrees. Make no mistake though, it will
remain hot, with temperatures remaining near early July normals in
the mid to upper 90s. We will keep our eye on the Tropics towards the
end of next week as record warm waters over the Atlantic will allow
continued activity within the Caribbean to work its way in the
direction of the Gulf of Mexico. Disturbance 95L has a greater than
80% chance of forming into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours to
the east of the Lesser Antilles. Should this storm move into the
central Caribbean, we would need to keep a close eye on it as the
Bermuda High would send it westward with time. For now, continue to
find ways to stay cool, and don`t forget to apply that sunscreen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Some pockets of MVFR ceilings are developing across portions of the
area and will mention SCT015 with a TEMPO group for SAT. VFR will
then continue by 14-15z with southerly winds today. Speeds could
approach 15 knots during the afternoon periods. An additional threat
of MVFR ceilings is expected once again overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             101  80  99  79 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  79  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  80  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            99  79  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  83 103  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  79  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             99  78 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        99  78  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  79  95  77 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  80  98  79 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          101  80 100  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-
Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...29