059
FXUS64 KEWX 300703
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
203 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A weak impulse has allowed for some isolated to scattered convection
to move into Maverick County overnight and this activity should push
southeast of the CWA shortly. Elsewhere, southeast winds are in
place across the area with an abundance of high clouds associated
with distant convection. Should begin to see some low-clouds develop
later tonight. Temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and we
will likely see low temperatures later tonight bottom out near 70 to
the upper 70s with the cooler temperatures expected in the Hill
Country. Most of the day should remain quiet but will carry some low
PoPs in the eastern counties. There is a boundary near Houston that
is slowly working west and this could provide some focus for shower
and storm activity during the today period. High temperatures today
will be similar to yesterday, topping out near 90 in the north to
near 100 along the Rio Grande.

The main focus for convection in the short-term will be during the
tonight period. CAMs are fairly consistent that thunderstorms will
develop in West Texas and the Panhandle along the dryline. However,
there are some differences between the members of the short-term
guidance about the overall evolution of any potential MCS once
storms develop and potentially transition into an MCS as the cold
pools become dominant. The ARW sends the system into the CWA early,
while the FV3/NAM keep the system a bit later and weakening as it
enters the CWA. The 00z HRRR has the MCS entering the Hill Country
around 1-2am and does keep it ongoing through daybreak Friday. Will
show PoPs in the 30-60 percent range tonight with the higher PoPs in
the Hill Country where probabilities are high that some sort of
effect from the system is likely. The latest Day 1 Outlook from SPC
has most of the CWA at least in a Level 1 (marginal) risk of severe
storms with a Level 2 (slight) risk in the northern Hill Country.
This seems reasonable as this area is most likely to see some sort
of impact from the potential MCS with the main question being the
overall strength of it by the time is enters the CWA. The main risk
with any storms will be damaging winds but hail and perhaps an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Lows tonight will likely be
near 70 in the Hill Country ranging up to the upper 70s in the west
and southern counties. Lows will likely be influenced by convection
with potential rain cooling to the surface.

The forecast Friday will definitely be impacted by what occurs
tonight. Models that show decent widespread convection tonight show
little convection during the day on Friday as the atmosphere will
likely be pretty well worked over. Will undercut the elevated NBM
PoPs for now as we lean more to that solution. Highs Friday will be
in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The unsettled weather pattern continues at least through the first
half of the weekend. The timing and location of each round of rain
and storms will remain difficult to pinpoint and ultimately depends
on how well the atmosphere recovers from the previous rounds of
storms and/or outflow. The same general triggers for storms remain
in place across the state. This includes shortwave disturbances
embedded within the west-northwesterly mid-level flow above the
upper level ridge centered across Mexico, the dryline towards the
west, a lingering surface front to the north, and any remaining
outflow boundaries from previous rounds of convection. Storms will
be capable of becoming strong to severe with any round from the
result of moderate to strong instability and sufficient deep layer
shear profiles over the area. Storms will be capable of heavier
rainfall rates as well and could pose a risk of flooding pending
previous rainfall, speed of storms, and antecedent soil moisture.
Temperatures will continue to run a little above climatological
average through the weekend.

Medium range guidance, including the ensemble means, continue to
indicate some decline of the area rain chances and an increase in
the heat next week as the upper level ridge centered over Mexico
builds northward and transitions toward an Omega Block pattern.
Given that the ridge becomes more centered to our west, the flow
aloft turns more northerly across South-Central Texas. While the
rain chances generally do look to lessen, this is not expected to
completely eliminate them out of the forecast as that northerly
steering flow could help promote the approach of outflow and/or an
upper level disturbance or two advancing out of the central and
southern plains along the eastern periphery of the ridge. Some
guidance indicates this potential toward the middle of next week.
Afternoon highs climb back to the mid 90s for many near the I-35
corridor and up into the 100 to 105 degree range along the Rio
Grande. With the dew points forecast to remain elevated, the heat
indices could approach and/or reach Heat Advisory levels across
portions of the region at times next week. Overnight lows remain
elevated in the 70s to near 80 degrees as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

High clouds from convective debris stream across the area, but we
should see some MVFR ceilings develop before too long at the I35
sites and then later overnight at DRT. Can`t rule out some brief IFR
but overall chances were too low to mention. VFR will then return by
the late morning hours. The next chance of rain will arrive to AUS
after 6z tomorrow night and perhaps 9-12z for SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  89  74  90 /  50  40  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  88  74  90 /  50  40  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  92  74  92 /  50  30  30  20
Burnet Muni Airport            71  84  72  87 /  60  40  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  98  78 101 /  20  10  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  87  72  87 /  50  50  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             75  94  75  94 /  40  20  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  91  74  90 /  50  40  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  88  75  89 /  40  40  30  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  92  76  92 /  40  30  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  94  76  94 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...29