723
FXUS64 KEWX 291950
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

There continues to be low confidence in the forecast through the
short term period. Currently we are forecasting a 20% or lower
chance for isolated storms late this afternoon and evening. The most
likely location for storms will be across far western portions of
the area as convection initiates along a dryline in west Texas
and/or the higher terrain in Mexico and then drift east through the
evening as they dissipate. Otherwise, an isolated storm or two
cannot be ruled out across eastern areas as well, though a particular
location is hard to define with no obvious surface lifting
mechanism. Any western storms will have the best potential to become
severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the threats.

Dry conditions should prevail overnight with low chances for
streamer showers tomorrow morning, mainly after sunrise, across
eastern portions of the area. Tomorrow afternoon, we`ll carry a low
chance for isolated thunderstorms areawide, though there is a good
chance the afternoon and evening hours will remain dry. We have the
most confidence in storms developing in west Texas and the Panhandle
tomorrow afternoon, which may form into a line that arrives to
central Texas during the early morning hours on Friday. This line,
assuming it makes it, will offer the best potential for rain during
the short term period but also the best potential for severe weather
with a Level 1-2 out of 5 risk in place. This line of storms may
continue to impact the area beyond 12Z Friday morning which shifts
into the Day 3/long term period. High and low temperatures will
remain similar each day with values near to slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

We start the last day of this work week with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and areas mainly
along and east of Highway 77. The overnight storm complex across
central Texas is forecast to be around through the morning commute.
Some of the storms will be capable of producing large to very large
hail and damaging winds. We could have a lull short period late
Friday morning and early Friday afternoon before new storm
development starts across the Hill Country and over central Texas
where a stationary front is likely to linger. For the Friday night
into Saturday morning period, there is low confidence on where the
storms may develop and how long they will last. However, forecast
soundings show plenty of instability and elevated mid level LR as
well as DCAPE values indicating the possibility of strong to severe
storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. It is
going to depend on the heating of the day, lingering outflow
boundaries and synoptic scale systems placement.

The wet weather pattern continues into the weekend with chances for
showers and storms mainly in the afternoon and evening associated
with daytime heating and storms developing ahead of the dryline over
west Texas and outflow boundaries moving across the local area and
interacting with a moist Gulf airmass.

Temperatures are likely be around climate normals for this period
ranging from the upper 80s and 90s during the day and 70s overnight.
Chances for rain are low for the upcoming work week but temperatures
will be increasing as well as humidity values, which could mark the
return of heat advisories as heat index values increase to critical
numbers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening hours
today. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of south-
central Texas later this afternoon, though chances for impacts at any
terminal are currently too low to mention in the TAFs. Low-end MVFR
cigs are expected to build in overnight and linger through tomorrow
morning before lifting and scattering. Additional isolated storms are
possible tomorrow afternoon as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  90  75  88 /  20  20  20  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  89  74  89 /  20  20  20  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  93  75  93 /  20  20  20  40
Burnet Muni Airport            72  87  72  85 /  20  20  20  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  98  79  99 /  20  10  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  87  72  86 /  20  20  20  60
Hondo Muni Airport             75  95  75  95 /  20  10  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  91  74  90 /  20  20  20  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  89  75  88 /  20  20  20  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  93  75  93 /  20  20  20  40
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  77  95 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Gale
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Gale