Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
128 FXUS64 KEWX 291110 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 610 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The main area of showers and thunderstorms continues to push east into the eastern counties at the present time. This activity associated with a mid-level impulse has allowed for widespread beneficial rainfall to occur over most of the CWA. In addition to the rain, we have seem some reports of some gusty winds on the back edge of the precip shield indicative of perhaps a weak wake low. Will continue to monitor this for any possible higher wind speeds which would need some sort of headline to cover the threat. Further to the west, some additional scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms can be seen on radar with the bulk of the activity in Mexico but now seeing some of this skirt just east of the Rio Grande. The presentation and movement of this is indicative of additional mid-level lift. This activity is not picked up well by the latest high-res model guidance but think as this moves east into our worked over airmass much of this should struggle to strengthen. Will continue to monitor for possible signs this thinking is wrong. Latest high-res models are fairly quiet for the today period through the late afternoon and evening hours as the atmosphere struggles to bounce back from the overnight activity. Will keep some low PoPs in the forecast for mainly the eastern and northern counties through the afternoon. Overall not too confident in the forecast, but with peak heating could see some additional isolated showers and storms in addition to the left over morning activity. The severe threat is non-zero, but overall low. The Day 1 Outlook has the CWA in a level 1 risk for severe storms. Otherwise, high temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s in the north to the upper 90s in the Rio Grande Counties. For tonight, will keep some 20 PoPs in the forecast for the chance of an isolated shower or storm. Lows will be in the 70s. Additional isolated to perhaps scattered showers and storms can be expected Thursday, but overall chances and confidence is low with little focus for forcing. Highs will be back in the upper 80s to near 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A daily opportunity for low to medium chances of rain and storms will continue through the end of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend. These thunderstorm chances will remain attributed to a combination of factors, including a stationary front across North Texas, a dryline across West Texas, any outflow boundaries that develop from convection each day, and weak impulses/disturbances riding above the top of the ridge centered across Mexico embedded within the westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow. While this particular pattern results in daily chances for rain, the exact locations where the rain will fall remain uncertain due number of factors at play and the nuances of each. Convective parameters may support organized strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain at times as well. Temperatures will run near or slightly above normal through the weekend. THe rain and storm chances look to decline and temperatures look to start rising into early to middle of next week as medium range guidance shows the ridging over Mexico starts to strengthen and nudge more northward into Texas and the Desert Southwest. We will have to keep an eye on those peak heat indices again next week each afternoon as a result of the climbing temperatures and continued elevated dew points. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 High MVFR to VFR ceilings continue this morning. Things did not drop as much as previously expected with some subsidence behind the rainfall system. Overall chances for additional activity is low today and will not mention anything in the TAFs. Should see the return of MVFR ceilings to all sites overnight tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 74 90 74 / 30 20 30 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 74 90 73 / 30 20 30 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 74 93 74 / 20 20 20 30 Burnet Muni Airport 85 72 86 71 / 40 20 30 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 80 100 78 / 10 10 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 72 89 71 / 30 20 40 30 Hondo Muni Airport 94 75 95 74 / 20 20 10 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 90 73 92 73 / 20 20 20 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 75 89 75 / 30 20 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 75 93 75 / 20 20 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 94 76 95 75 / 20 20 20 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...29 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...29