064
FXUS62 KFFC 271850
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Thunderstorms continue to drift northward out of central GA along a
sfc low assisted seabreeze. Thunderstorms are light and scattered
along the line, though a rumble of thunder here and there is likely
with these. Another broken line of small thunderstorms is moving
south of I-20 along the boundary formed by cloud coverage this
morning. These will likely continue to drift south until colliding
with the southern line. Further thunderstorm development is likely
between the lines as they near each other. Scattered thunderstorms
remain possible across the rest of the area through the evening
hours given our weak CAPE and assistance from the passing mid level
trough. Precipitation values will likely remain below 0.5" in any
place though locally higher amounts may be possible.

Thunderstorms should begin to clear out with sunset as the daytime
energy falls. A few showers may be possible overnight given the
increased PWATS near 2.0" and weak lift. Scattered thunderstorms
will likely pick back up late tomorrow morning.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be notably cooler than the past
several days. Cloud coverage and precipitation will be the main
drivers of this. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s and low
90s.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Extended begins with a broad flat 500mb ridge axis extending from
TX eastward across the SE into the Atlantic with an implied
weakness in that axis across the SE states. The upper level system
analyzed over AL today drifts south then northeastward across N.
GA on Saturday all while continuing to weaken and become more
diffuse. NBM guidance is aggressive with pops on Sat with 80-90
pops across N GA which may in part be due to 1) the lack of an
suppressing ridge and 2) whats left of the remnant low.
Deterministic runs wouldn`t necessarily support likely to def pops
but do not have strong confidence to lower either given the
factors in play including 2"+ pwats to work with.
Additionally, what looked like a potential heat advisory kind of
day yesterday (for Saturday) is now backed off considerably due to
the expectation of more clouds/showers around. End result is lower
max T/apparent T values. Will have to watch trends going into
Saturday since Dpt values will be high thus trends in lower pops
would result in higher apparent T values.

By Sunday going into Monday, 500mb and 700mb ridge begin to
amplify to the west across the ArklaTex region and extend east
into the SE US. Pops on Sunday..for now are lower which when
combined with mid 70 dpts will make for 105+ apparent T
values...particularly SE zones. But similar to how the trend for
Saturday has gone, will need to watch trends for clouds/shower
chances as it seems to be the big heat advisory buster in recent
years.

During the day Monday a front sinks south on the eastern periphery
of the ridge dragging some drier air with it into the state.
Guidance is mixed on how far south the drier air pushes but it
should result in a decent gradient of pops from lower values north
to higher south across the frontal zone. Temps still warmer than
average area wide, but again could be influenced heavily by
showers/storms.

Gradual warming trend Tue and Wed as upper ridge builds in across
the SE states. Pops return to more climo to slightly below climo
values. At the same time, attention may become more focused on
95L and where it may end up going as it should be somewhere in the
Central Caribbean about this time. Strength/breakdown of the ridge
over the SE and newly developing ridge over the western US will
ultimately have an impact on whether the system turns northward or
continues WNW. Stay tuned.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions through tonight except in -TSRA. -TSRA and vcsh remains
possibly through roughly 00Z. Winds may be gusty and variable
within -TSRA. Winds W to NW in metro, SW south of TSRA boundary.
Winds could be vrb through this evening due to outflows. Winds
light to vrb overnight become SE tomorrow morning. VSBY across
central GA may drop overnight with light winds to around 4SM,
metro should remain clear. CIGS drop around 07Z and may fall to
IFR briefly around 12Z, though may remain sct rather than bkn.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium Confidence CIGS tomorrow morning.
Medium Confidence Winds this evening.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  91  72  91 /  20  50  50  70
Atlanta         72  91  74  91 /  20  50  50  70
Blairsville     66  85  69  84 /  20  50  50  90
Cartersville    70  91  73  91 /  20  50  50  80
Columbus        74  93  74  93 /  30  60  50  60
Gainesville     71  88  74  89 /  20  50  50  80
Macon           71  93  73  94 /  30  60  40  60
Rome            71  93  74  93 /  10  50  40  80
Peachtree City  70  91  72  92 /  20  50  50  60
Vidalia         74  94  74  95 /  30  70  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...SM