Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
125 FXUS62 KFFC 121845 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 245 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 After some areas of low clouds and patchy fog early this morning, skies have become partly cloudy with a combination of a cumulus field and cirrus clouds. The cirrus clouds are associated with a weak shortwave trough moving toward the area from the W. Early afternoon temperatures ranged from the mid 70s across the NE mountains to the upper 80s to near 90 near and SE of Macon. The aforementioned shortwave may squeeze out some isolated showers across the extreme S later this afternoon and early this evening. A few thunderstorms are not out of the question in the SW corner of the County Warning Area. Low-level moisture may increase a bit across the S tonight, but increased boundary layer mixing should reduce the likelihood of thicker low clouds. High resolution models are also producing a few showers over the mountains during the day Thursday as the shortwave moves overhead. The remainder of the area is expected to be dry. Lows tonight will drop to near 60 in the NE mountains ranging to near 70 across the S. High temperatures on Thursday will be similar to today`s, although readings across the NW third of the area will increase a bit under the influence of weak ridging behind the shortwave. Thursday night`s lows will be similar to tonight`s as well. SEC && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 No major changes made to the extended forecast. Broad and wide mid/upper level ridging will dominate much of the long term. Temperatures will continue to climb peaking Saturday, when highs could potentually reach 100 degrees in portions of Central GA. Models continue to struggle with moisture transport out of the Gulf as they struggle to get a handle on the development of a gulf sfc low. Recent trends are catching on to a weak sub-tropical shortwave jet which helps to develop something over the Florida Panhandle before sending it off into the Atlantic. NE flow associated with this low could certainly dry us out more than expected as we go into the weekend. PWATs seem to reflect this hanging near 1 to 1.5" in both the GFS and ECMWF as well as the GEFS mean. This would put us just below normal for this time of year. Dry air would mean both reduced heat indices and PoPs. The NBM seems to reflect this by keeping PoPs out of the area through early next week, though given the uncertainty in moisture transport and incoming shortwave energy, will likely bring low PoPs into Central GA through early next week. Speaking of early next week, a building sub-tropical jetstreak over Arkansas and the Mid-Mississippi valley will once again draw moisture out of the Gulf and provide more robust PoPs across North and Central GA. CAPE values will be conducive to our normal diurnally driven pulse convection. Greater precipitation coverage will help to moderate out temperatures, however this will likely be traded for a classic "Southeast Sauna". SM/01 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Cumulus field may locally become broken briefly this afternoon with cig heights around 6kft. However, dry air entrainment into the shallow moist layer should keep these periods brief Also, some patches of broken cirrus will move across the area into the evening hours associated with an approaching shortwave trough. Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue. There may be more low-level moisture across the SE portion of the area later tonight, but the atmosphere may be a bit more mixed in the boundary layer. Later shifts will monitor for possible increase in low clouds (mainly at MCN). Winds will be light E-SE with some periods of near calm during the night. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High for all elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 90 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 70 91 71 96 / 10 10 0 10 Blairsville 62 84 63 88 / 0 20 0 10 Cartersville 68 92 68 95 / 0 10 0 10 Columbus 72 93 72 97 / 10 20 0 10 Gainesville 67 88 68 93 / 0 10 0 10 Macon 70 93 69 96 / 0 10 0 0 Rome 67 92 69 96 / 0 10 0 0 Peachtree City 69 91 69 96 / 10 10 0 0 Vidalia 71 92 70 95 / 0 20 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...SEC