882
FXUS62 KFFC 211847
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

At a glance:

-Period of calm weather continues.

-Max temperatures will run between 5 and 10 degrees above normal.

It may be the first day of fall according the the calendar, but
summer isn`t going anywhere. High pressure will keep daytime highs
in the low 90s while overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and low
70s. Winds are expected to stay out of the SW and W which will
largely keep temperatures running above average through the weekend.

As far as pops go, you`ll have to look at the long term for any hope
of that. A few afternoon CU clouds will be as much as we can dare to
ask for. So get out and enjoy the nice weather!

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Current high pressure over the southern CONUS is expected to dampen
beginning Monday when the low pressure system currently near the
four corners region lifts northeastward into the mid MS valley. As
it moves, an associated sfc level cold front will push into Tennessee
and north Georgia by Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will in
turn increase rain chances for north Georgia. As it pushes further
southward through Wednesday and Thursday the rain chances look to
increase along with the system. The EPS and GEFS are both indicating
marginal shear and sfc based CAPE values at this time, so while
there likely will be thunderstorms associated with these showers, it
will likely be isolated in nature. The risk for any widespread severe
weather remains low. Due to the relatively weak nature of the front
and marginal shear values, organized thunderstorms are not expected
and thus our QPF values remain mainly below 0.5" and will likely be
isolated/scattered in nature.

One positive of this, is the temperatures will start to decrease by
Wednesday into the mid 80s and then the low 80s to start off the
weekend. This will bring temps much closer to normal for this time
of year.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate an area of low pressure
forming over the Yucatan Peninsula before moving into the
western/central Gulf of Mexico. NHC continues to carry a 60% chances
fro tropical development over the next 7 days. Current EPS and GEFS
ensemble forecast tracks are indicating that anywhere along the gulf
coast is fair game for any potential landfall at this time. The
models should get a better idea of this system once the area of low
pressure actually forms mid this week. Another factor coming into
play is how this troughing plays out over the eastern CONUS and how
it will help steer the system. Current rainfall totals are around an
inch but again with the uncertainty this is highly subject to
change. More information should come together over the next couple
of days although uncertainty still remains.


Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure will bring light SW winds at less than 5kts through
the TAF period. A CU field with VFR CIGS will form after 16Z; but
will gradually dissipate after 00Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  94  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         71  93  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     64  86  64  85 /   0  10   0  30
Cartersville    67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        70  94  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     69  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           67  95  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            68  94  67  93 /   0  10   0  10
Peachtree City  68  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         68  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Vaughn