Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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226 FXUS62 KFFC 151851 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 251 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 At a glance: - Hottest day of the year (so far) today - Isolated thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow afternoon The key player in the next few days` sensible weather is an amplifying mid-level ridge gradually making its way eastward, taking up residence across the Southeast/ECONUS. Heating and drying of our presiding airmass under uninterrupted subsidence will be further reinforced at the surface, where the western fringes of a retreating surface high will blanket the area. The result of the aforementioned features: impressive, though comparatively dry, heat through the weekend. Today looks to be the hottest day of the year thus far, with highs forecast to top out in the mid-to-upper 90s (aside from northeast Georgia, which will remain in the mid-to-upper 80s to near 90). Sunday looks to be a few degrees "cooler", with highs in the low-to-mid 90s expected. The saving grace of this setup will be low afternoon relative humidities (in the 30-40% range), which will spare north and central Georgia from heat index values that would prompt Heat Advisory issuance. As it stands, heat index values look to top out in the 98- 102F degree range today, enough to cause heat-related illnesses in sensitive/vulnerable populations, like children, the elderly, and those without access to air conditioning. Tomorrow, with marginally lower highs, heat index values look to remain outside of the triple digits for most locales. In addition to the heat, a Code Orange air quality alert is in effect for the Atlanta Metro this afternoon, due primarily to smog/ozone. The moral of the story: despite lower moisture precluding more oppressive heat, continue to pace yourself if planning on spending large parts of your weekend outdoors, and always look before you lock. This afternoon, due to weakness in flow near the surface and a convergent boundary roughly bisecting the forecast area, low-end (15- 20%) chances for thunderstorms have been introduced for areas along and south of I-85/north of Columbus and Macon during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but ridging aloft -- and associated subsidence -- will inhibit more widespread convective initiation. Sunday, with a surface high sliding across New York State and off the Eastern Seaboard and characteristic U-shaped isobars banking up against the Appalachian mountains, north and north central Georgia look primed for brief wedging. Aided by isentropic lift over the "cool" (slightly less hot?) dome, cloud coverage and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is likely to be higher. Sensible differences in temperature under the wedge are unlikely to be felt outside of far northeast Georgia, where highs will be 5-6 degrees lower, in the low-to-mid 80s. 96 && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The warm temperatures are expected to continue through this week as the high pressure dominates with mid level ridging also dominating the pattern. There does remain the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms although that chance is pretty low at this point. Would not be surprised if thee is just enough moisture return and enough differential heating to produce a stray thunderstorm which could ultimately lead to a damaging wind gust. With the moisture plume going into the lower MS valley and the tropical moisture (currently 50% by NHC) expected to go into the TX/LA border the pressure gradient could become tight enough over central and western Georgia to give the area gusty winds through Wednesday into Thursday. Other than that, there are some model indications that precip chances could return into the weekend but this is basing off any tropical moisture we get so this is highly dependent. Hernandez && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conds to continue with primarily FEW-SCT cigs at 5-7kft. Isold -TSRA psbl this aftn/eve at northern TAF sites between 21-01Z. Low-end chc of brief pd of decreased vsbys in HZ this aftn. Tomorrow, higher coverage of aftn -TSRA psbl, covered at present by a PROB30 from 19-23Z. Winds are likely to be light/VRB to CALM at times thru the TAF pd, especially overnight, but will remain primarily out of the SE aft 19-20Z at 6-8kts. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence TSRA coverage and timing. High confidence all other elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 72 92 71 91 / 20 20 20 10 Atlanta 74 95 74 92 / 20 20 20 10 Blairsville 68 87 67 86 / 20 50 30 30 Cartersville 73 94 72 93 / 20 30 20 10 Columbus 74 97 74 94 / 10 20 20 20 Gainesville 73 90 72 89 / 20 30 30 10 Macon 73 97 72 94 / 10 20 10 10 Rome 73 95 74 94 / 10 40 20 20 Peachtree City 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 20 10 Vidalia 73 95 72 93 / 10 20 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...96