Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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230 FXUS62 KFFC 280110 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 910 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...Evening Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Scattered convection is still ongoing primarily across west- central and south-central GA this evening. Per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, this convection appears to be elevated, given the CIN currently in place. This is also reaffirmed by the latest 00z FFC sounding. Nevertheless, a few strong and isolated severe thunderstorms will still be possible capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for much of south- central GA until 10 PM. With this latest forecast update several counties in east-central GA have been removed from the watch. As the evening progresses, additional counties are likely to be removed from the watch prior to the expiration time. As we head into the overnight hours, our concern shifts to hydro particularly along the southern CWA boarder (portions of Stewart, Webster, southern Marion and Schley, Sumter and Crisp counties). These areas can typically take a decent amount of rainfall given the soil type but several rounds of locally heavy rainfall have impacted these areas and any additional rainfall may pose a localized flooding threat overnight. At this time 2 to 3 inches look to have occurred. So certainly something to monitor over the next few hours with convection still present in that area. Patchy fog will be possible in low-lying areas and/or areas that received an appreciable amount of rainfall today. A surface front will continue to push through the CWA overnight resulting in drier conditions for Tuesday and perhaps through mid- week as high pressure builds across portions of the southeast. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The main line of thunderstorms has moved out of the area, leaving a boundary stretching from Heard County over through Bibb County. A couple storms continue to move along this boundary, occasionally spinning up as they ingests vorticity and MUCAPE of around 2000 J/Kg. This storm is likely to remain at or near severe levels through the next few hours. A few storms are possible north of the boundary this afternoon as the larger mid level trough and sfc cold front pushed through. These storms will be isolated in nature although a storm becoming strong cannot be ruled out. Storms along and south of the boundary will be more scattered in nature. These southern storms also have a greater potential to become strong to even severe given the atmosphere has not quite been worked over just yet. With current cloud coverage, temperatures continue to most models. CAMs overall struggled with this system, however the HRRR seems to be doing the best of all of them. The good news is that once this system moves through, conditions clear and dry out. Winds will be light but noticeable tomorrow and highs will reach back into the mid-80s. SM && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 With active weather ongoing across portions of the forecast area, only minor adjustments have been made to the extended forecast based on the latest guidance. The previous discussion follows... .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 The extended forecast starts off dry as high pressure slowly builds in from the northern plains and western great lake states. With this ridge and drier airmass will come slightly cooler temps for the middle to the end of the week. Temps Wed through Fri will see highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s. Moisture begins to creep back in for the weekend and could see precip chances move back in for Sat/Sun. 01 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Sct convection continues for areas primarily south of I-20 this evening and is expected to gradually dissipate closer to 03z. Cigs/vsbys largely remain VFR, though MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in association with any convection that occurs. MVFR vsbys will be possible between 06-12z at CSG/MCN. Skies are expected to clear out after 06z with SKC expected on Tuesday. Winds will be light/VRB tonight switching to the NW 5 to 10kts with gusts nearing 22kts Tuesday afternoon. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on TSRA potential at ATL through 02z. High confidence on remaining elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 86 61 85 / 20 0 0 0 Atlanta 68 86 65 84 / 20 0 0 0 Blairsville 59 77 54 76 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 64 84 59 83 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 69 90 66 88 / 50 0 0 0 Gainesville 65 83 61 83 / 20 0 0 0 Macon 68 89 63 88 / 50 0 0 0 Rome 65 85 60 83 / 10 0 0 0 Peachtree City 66 86 62 85 / 30 0 0 0 Vidalia 72 90 67 89 / 60 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...07