802
FXUS62 KFFC 250616
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
216 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across north
Georgia amid diurnal heating. Additional development is expected
through the afternoon as remnant boundaries as well as an MCV
associated with a decaying convective complex over northern Alabama
push into the area amid SBCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. The strongest
storms could produce damaging wind gusts as well as instances of
hail through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
given PWATs over 1.5-1.7", particularly if any localized training of
storms occurs.

While some convection may linger into the evening, a general
decrease in convective coverage is expected during the overnight
hours with loss of heating. However, uncertainty increases by
Saturday morning as some CAMs (notably the HRRR) continue to
indicate the potential for an MCS to approach north Georgia. These
mesoscale features are notoriously difficult to forecast with regard
to timing and placement, so the Saturday forecast will greatly
depend on this potential.

For this forecast, chance PoPs were maintained across north GA
through the morning with a diurnal increase in PoPs into the
afternoon. However, if more widespread convection indeed does affect
the area in the morning, this could serve to lessen afternoon
development, at least across portions of north Georgia. The severe
threat would associated with any morning convective complex would
likely be fairly limited given a less-unstable environment, though a
threat for strong wind gusts can`t be ruled out. Any additional
afternoon convection forming along remnant boundaries could pose a
more sustained severe threat if sufficient instability is realized
(depending on evolution of morning convection).

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Cold front still on schedule for early next week.

Fast flow will likely remain in place across the CWA through early
next week. The mid level flow remains very conducive to strong
shortwaves/MCV/MCS features to move east within the flow through the
period. There are some slight differences within the 500mb pattern
between the NAM and GFS for Sunday. The GFS has a slightly stronger
shortwave moving across northern GA during the day, while the NAM
has some slight shortwave ridging. Will keep the highest pops along
the GA/TN/NC border and within the lower/mid chance category where
any shortwave ridging would be weakest.

A trough looks to move through the SE states later Monday into
Tuesday. This will be coincident with a frontal passage. There will
be plenty of surface instability and lapse rates will be pretty
steep. Shear looks to be marginal to decent, averaging between 35-
45kt. Do think convection could be a bit more organized as the front
moves through.

High pressure will build in behind the front for the remainder of
the week. Fairly quiet weather is expected.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR to start TAF period. Occasional cigs above 100 will be
possible through the morning and afternoon as blow off from
convection to the W and NW moves over area. Some cu field
development likely this afternoon. Biggest question will be when
and if storms impact airports - current thinking of best timing
would be in the afternoon from 16-20Z, but high uncertainty around
this. Winds will be from the W to SW, 5-10 kts, going light at
night.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Low convective timing, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  91  71  89 /  20  20  10  40
Atlanta         69  91  71  88 /  20  20  10  50
Blairsville     62  85  66  81 /  20  20  30  70
Cartersville    67  91  69  88 /  20  20  20  60
Columbus        69  92  71  90 /  20  10   0  30
Gainesville     68  90  71  86 /  20  20  20  60
Macon           69  92  71  91 /  20  10   0  30
Rome            67  91  70  87 /  20  20  30  60
Peachtree City  67  91  70  88 /  20  20  10  40
Vidalia         71  94  74  93 /  40  20   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Lusk