234
FXUS62 KFFC 210518
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
118 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Current cu field shown on satellite should stick around through the
afternoon. Winds are currently mainly easterly but overall are
variable and under 10 mph. The low pressure system has moved off the
eastern coast to the Atlantic while the dome of high pressure
continues to shift eastward. In between this low pressure and high
pressure system a wedge has setup over the northeastern portion of
the area which has allowed for temperatures to be slightly cooler in
that area. Temps up to the upper 80s/low 90s are currently on track
today except for the northeast GA mountains where temps should reach
the low to mid 80s. The entire SE is in a dry pattern with this
upper level pattern and thus dewpoints have been lowered a tad to
account for this. RHs are expected to be in the 30% range for north
Georgia especially. Tomorrow temps will be similar at 8-15 degrees
above normal for much of the area.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

As the extended period begins, a strong upper level ridge will be
extending from the Lower Mississippi River Valley towards the
eastern Great Lakes region. The influence of this ridge and
associated high pressure will keep weather conditions mostly dry
through the early parts of next week. Furthermore, temperatures will
run well above average for late September. Afternoon highs in the
low 90s across the majority of the forecast area Sunday through
Tuesday will be 6-13 degrees above daily normals. Aside from a
stray, isolated shower here and there in the higher elevations of
far northeast Georgia each afternoon, the ridge pattern will keep
precipitation north of the forecast area as it continues to
gradually move eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. By Tuesday a
shortwave trough and surface low will swing through the Midwest,
with a cold front advancing through the Tennessee Valley. At this
point, showers and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
across north Georgia.

Later next week there is still a lot of uncertainty with the
potential for tropical development in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.
Most of the model guidance is in agreement that a broad low will
develop in the western Gulf of Mexico, but there remain significant
differences in location, timing, and intensity. There is also little
run to run consistency in the guidance, at this time as well. Will
continue to monitor over the next few days as guidance should come
into better agreement.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR through the period. Winds will be light through the period.
For the next few hours, direction should be mostly easterly with
speeds of 4-5kt or less and then go VRB for the early morning
hours. Once mixing begins, wind speeds should remain light but the
direction should mostly be on the SW side.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.


NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         70  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     63  86  63  85 /   0  10   0  10
Cartersville    67  93  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        70  92  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     68  91  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           67  92  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            67  93  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  67  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         66  89  68  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...NListemaa