617
FXUS62 KFFC 182333 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
733 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Highlights:

- Warm temperatures continue through the Short Term.

- An isolated shower cannot be ruled out over in NE GA and across
  south-central GA This afternoon and again Wed afternoon.

Current satellite loop shows mainly fair weather CU developing
across North and Central GA. Surface Bermuda ridge and Mid level
Mid Atlantic ridge combining to keep things mostly dry over the
area but we are in easterly Atlantic flow. Most locations will
remain dry through Tonight but some isolated showers and/or storms
cannot be ruled out with the easterly flow especially at the
highest elevations in the northeast (terrain induced) and across
far south-central Georgia. Any storms that develop could produce
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures are still forecast to be slightly `cooler` than
previous days with forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s (80s
in the mountains). Forecast lows will be in the upper 60s to low
70s. Lower dewpoints and afternoon RH values will keep heat
indices near the actual temperature. Nevertheless, continue to be
proactive if outdoors!

07/01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Key Messages:

- Temperatures will gradually increase this weekend, with heat
  index values ranging from 100-105 degrees by early next week.

- Rain chances will gradually increase from south to north Friday
  through Monday.

Hot, dry conditions are expected on Thursday as the SREF is
progging a strong 500 mb ridge and expansive ~1030 mb surface high
over much of the eastern CONUS. High temperatures are forecasted
to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s (outside of the mountains).

Ensemble guidance depicts a weakening trend in the upper-level
ridging Friday through Monday as the jet stream becomes less
meridional over the northern tier of the CONUS. The resulting
decreased footprint of high pressure will allow for gradually
increasing PoPs as easterly flow off the Atlantic advects PWAT of
1.5+ inches inland. A 20% to 40% chance for showers and
thunderstorms across central Georgia on Friday and Saturday will
give way to area-wide 20% to 50% PoPs on Sunday and Monday. The
area of showers and thunderstorms for which NHC is highlighting a
20% chance of cyclone formation in the next 7 days will have an
impact on the moisture flux across the CWA, and thus PoPs, as it
approaches from the southeast.

Meanwhile, mostly to partly sunny conditions will allow for ample
insolation and increasing temperatures Friday through Monday.
Widespread highs in the mid-90s to upper 90s are expected on
Saturday, with widespread highs in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees on Sunday. The increasing moisture will bring heat index
values into the 100-103 degree range on Sunday afternoon and
Monday afternoon. There are areas of 105-107 degree heat index
values on Monday afternoon generally across eastern and central
Georgia, so it is possible that a Heat Advisory will be issued
early next week.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR and dry conditions through the forecast with thick high
clouds and a few-sct cumulus 5-7kft in the afternoon and evening.
E sfc winds somewhat strong for this time of year, 5-10kts
overnight increasing to 10-15kts with gusts 20-26kts likely after
15Z Wed.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

High confidence for all elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         68  89  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     62  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        71  91  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     66  86  68  88 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           67  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            69  90  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  66  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         69  89  69  91 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...SNELSON