226
FXUS62 KFFC 151851
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

At a glance:

    - Hottest day of the year (so far) today

    - Isolated thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow afternoon

The key player in the next few days` sensible weather is an
amplifying mid-level ridge gradually making its way eastward, taking
up residence across the Southeast/ECONUS. Heating and drying of our
presiding airmass under uninterrupted subsidence will be further
reinforced at the surface, where the western fringes of a retreating
surface high will blanket the area. The result of the aforementioned
features: impressive, though comparatively dry, heat through the
weekend. Today looks to be the hottest day of the year thus far,
with highs forecast to top out in the mid-to-upper 90s (aside from
northeast Georgia, which will remain in the mid-to-upper 80s to near
90). Sunday looks to be a few degrees "cooler", with highs in the
low-to-mid 90s expected.

The saving grace of this setup will be low afternoon relative
humidities (in the 30-40% range), which will spare north and central
Georgia from heat index values that would prompt Heat Advisory
issuance. As it stands, heat index values look to top out in the 98-
102F degree range today, enough to cause heat-related illnesses in
sensitive/vulnerable populations, like children, the elderly, and
those without access to air conditioning. Tomorrow, with marginally
lower highs, heat index values look to remain outside of the triple
digits for most locales. In addition to the heat, a Code Orange air
quality alert is in effect for the Atlanta Metro this afternoon, due
primarily to smog/ozone. The moral of the story: despite lower
moisture precluding more oppressive heat, continue to pace yourself
if planning on spending large parts of your weekend outdoors, and
always look before you lock.

This afternoon, due to weakness in flow near the surface and a
convergent boundary roughly bisecting the forecast area, low-end (15-
20%) chances for thunderstorms have been introduced for areas along
and south of I-85/north of Columbus and Macon during the afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but ridging aloft -- and
associated subsidence -- will inhibit more widespread convective
initiation. Sunday, with a surface high sliding across New York
State and off the Eastern Seaboard and characteristic U-shaped
isobars banking up against the Appalachian mountains, north and
north central Georgia look primed for brief wedging. Aided by
isentropic lift over the "cool" (slightly less hot?) dome, cloud
coverage and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is likely to be
higher. Sensible differences in temperature under the wedge are
unlikely to be felt outside of far northeast Georgia, where highs
will be 5-6 degrees lower, in the low-to-mid 80s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The warm temperatures are expected to continue through this week
as the high pressure dominates with mid level ridging also
dominating the pattern. There does remain the chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms although that chance is pretty low at
this point. Would not be surprised if thee is just enough
moisture return and enough differential heating to produce a stray
thunderstorm which could ultimately lead to a damaging wind gust.
With the moisture plume going into the lower MS valley and the
tropical moisture (currently 50% by NHC) expected to go into the
TX/LA border the pressure gradient could become tight enough over
central and western Georgia to give the area gusty winds through
Wednesday into Thursday. Other than that, there are some model
indications that precip chances could return into the weekend but
this is basing off any tropical moisture we get so this is highly
dependent.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conds to continue with primarily FEW-SCT cigs at 5-7kft. Isold
-TSRA psbl this aftn/eve at northern TAF sites between 21-01Z.
 Low-end chc of brief pd of decreased vsbys in HZ this aftn.
 Tomorrow, higher coverage of aftn -TSRA psbl, covered at present
 by a PROB30 from 19-23Z. Winds are likely to be light/VRB to CALM
 at times thru the TAF pd, especially overnight, but will remain
 primarily out of the SE aft 19-20Z at 6-8kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence TSRA coverage and timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  71  91 /  20  20  20  10
Atlanta         74  95  74  92 /  20  20  20  10
Blairsville     68  87  67  86 /  20  50  30  30
Cartersville    73  94  72  93 /  20  30  20  10
Columbus        74  97  74  94 /  10  20  20  20
Gainesville     73  90  72  89 /  20  30  30  10
Macon           73  97  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
Rome            73  95  74  94 /  10  40  20  20
Peachtree City  72  95  72  92 /  20  20  20  10
Vidalia         73  95  72  93 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...96