043
FXUS62 KFFC 141036
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
636 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Key Messages:

 - The warmest temperatures of the year thus far will occur on
   Saturday.

 - Dry weather is anticipated for the majority of the region
   through at least Saturday.

Today and Saturday:

The primary weather concern during this period will be the heat, as
the warmest temperatures of 2024 thus far develop in Georgia. Rising
heat concerns will be driven by the combination of an amplifying
upper level ridge, rising 850 mb temperatures and ample sunshine.
For this afternoon, widespread high temperatures in the mid 90s are
expected (5-10 degrees above seasonal averages). Temperatures will
climb further on Saturday resulting in afternoon highs in the upper
90s (7 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages). Isolated triple digit
temperatures could occur in central Georgia where NBM guidance gives
Macon a 20% chance of reaching 100 degrees. The one factor working
in our favor with this heat event will be relatively low humidity
values (30-40% Friday and Saturday afternoons). This should keep
heat indices (feels like temperatures) below the typical threshold
for a Heat Advisory of 105 degrees (forecast values are between 98
and 103 degrees), and allow healthy individuals who are properly
hydrated to cool off via sweating and evaporative cooling. The heat
may however pose a major risk to sensitive populations (children,
the elderly or those without effective access to hydration or air
conditioning), with the new NWS Heat Risk product suggesting a Red
or Level 3 of 4 risk from Atlanta southward into central Georgia.
The Heat Risk product is a new collaboration between the NWS and CDC
(Centers for Disease Control) that can be found at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk. It considers climatological and
demographic data when producing a risk level, and in this case the
relatively early occurrence of this heat event (in the first half of
June) is likely contributing to the level 3 out of 4 risk level. The
Heat Risk product should be used in combination with the heat index
and WBGT when making heat related decisions.

Though good boundary layer mixing may result in scattered cumulus
clouds this afternoon and Saturday, dry weather is expected through
at least Saturday. The primary drivers behind the continued lack of
afternoon thunderstorms will be limited low level moisture and
subsidence from the upper level ridge.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Highlights:

-The heat will continue to plague the forecast area through the
weekend into next week.

-The potential for isolated to scattered rain and thunder chances
return Sunday and continue into next week.

Ridging and surface high pressure will be in place at the start of
the long term period (Saturday night) and look to influence the
weather pattern through the majority of the period. High pressure
starts to slide towards the East Coast Sunday eventually moving
offshore by early next week which will result in some gradual
moisture return. Ridging aloft will also inch eastward becoming
slightly more amplified through the period. All of this will
equate to hot and increasing humid conditions along with the
return of daily isolated-scattered rain and thunder chances next
week. Temperatures through the long term will largely be in the
90s aside from the the NE Georgia mountains where temperatures
will be in the 80s. Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the long
term with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices
in the upper 90s to low 100s. Forecast low temperatures will be
in the upper 60s to 70s.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions (SKC-SCT AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) will continue in the region through at least 18Z
Saturday. Light and variable winds are expected through 15Z today,
then northwest winds (3 to 8 kt) are expected between 15Z today
and 00Z Saturday. Light and variable winds will return after 00Z
Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  95  72  93 /   0  10  10  20
Atlanta         75  97  75  94 /   0  10  10  20
Blairsville     65  89  67  86 /   0  10  10  20
Cartersville    69  96  72  96 /   0  10   0  20
Columbus        75 100  76  97 /   0  10  10  20
Gainesville     72  93  72  91 /   0  10  10  20
Macon           72  99  74  94 /   0  10  10  20
Rome            70  97  71  96 /   0  10   0  10
Peachtree City  72  97  73  94 /   0  10  10  20
Vidalia         73  99  75  95 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Albright