516
FXUS62 KFFC 131747
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
147 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Highlights:

-A few showers and thunderstorms possible across portions of
 Central Georgia and NE Georgia mtns this afternoon.

-Continued warming temperatures through Friday

A passing shortwave trough has resulted in continued mid to high
level cloud cover across the forecast area. A weak surface low is
also moving through the area and may result in variable winds through
the morning. Increased boundary layer winds should inhibit any lower
clouds this morning. Overall conditions will be fairly similar to
yesterday -- with daytime cu and largely dry conditions (for most
locales). Hi-res guidance does continue to hint at isolated showers
and storms this afternoon likely due to slightly increased moisture
and lift from the shortwave. Additionally, some terrain induced
activity will be possible across far NE Georgia as well. Once the
shortwave has passed gradual clearing is expected across the forecast
area.

Toasty temperatures can be expected both today and on Friday. Today
high temperatures will range from the low 80s across NE Georgia to
mid 90s across much of Central Georgia. By Friday, most locations
(aside from the NE Georgia mtns) will climb into the mid to upper
90s. The saving grace right now looks to be dewpoints -- which would
largely keep heat indices below 100. Even still -- it`s going to be
hot so make sure to take necessary precautions if outdoors and check
in on vulnerable groups!

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Taking a look at conditions starting on Saturday, High pressure and
an associated ridge over the Great Lakes and Great Planes will mean
temperatures will be HOT this weekend. Models are attempting to
resolve low pressure in lee of the Appalachians and over North GA.
This is likely a product of NE flow around developing sfc lows in the
Western Atlantic (see NHC outlook) pulling dry air into a wedge-
like pattern for our area. PWATs will be slightly below normal,
hanging around the 1.25" mark. Less moisture in the air will mean
that temperatures climb above normal for this time of the year. The
record high at the ATL airport on Saturday is 96, with recent
forecasts consistently progging near 99. Temperatures elsewhere
across the region will reach into the upper 90s to near 100,
especially in east central GA. We aren`t likely to cool off much into
Sunday, with highs remaining in the upper 90s for much of the
region. Moisture begins to surge as we get into early next week with
PWATs climbing back over 1.5". When combined with a week mid level
disturbance, PoPs return Sunday through Tuesday morning. Temperatures
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s by mid next week.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue. Areas mostly NW and N of
the Atlanta metro area may briefly go broken later this afternoon,
but cig heights are expected to be around 7kft. Low-level moisture
may sneak close to MCN from the SE toward daybreak Fri, but have left
them mostly clear for now. Winds will be generally light easterly
through the remainder of the day, becoming light and variable or calm
this evening (have opted to keep ATL light easterly). A weak surface
ridge is forecast to slip S of the Atlanta metro and AHN terminals
late tonight or early Fri morning, with light winds becoming more
W-NW.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium for timing of wind direction change to westerly Fri morning,
high for all other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  95  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         72  96  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     63  88  64  89 /  10  10   0  10
Cartersville    69  96  69  97 /   0  10   0  10
Columbus        73  97  74 100 /  10   0   0  10
Gainesville     68  93  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
Macon           69  97  73 100 /   0   0   0  10
Rome            68  97  70  97 /   0  10   0  10
Peachtree City  70  96  72  98 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         70  96  74 100 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...SEC