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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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304 FXUS62 KFFC 091828 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 228 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 No major weather impacts or forecast concerns expected in the long term period. Pretty quiet, but very hot this afternoon. Some temps may top out just shy of 100F in our SE counties. Morning sounding also showed very warm mid level temps with nearly +12C at 700mb, which should be more than enough inhibit any convection this afternoon and early evening until we can get some mid level upward motion and/or CAA aloft. Near-term CAM guidance has started backing off on chances for MCS development overnight, perhaps due to capping inversion which likely extends west into central AL where few if any cumulus have developed based on VIS imagery. Boundary over northern MS and AL remains well- defined and plenty of moisture and instability to work with as SBCAPE values 3000-5000 J/kg in place over central MS and western AL at this time. Even if storms fire, they may remain west of the area as the MCS propagates ESE toward the higher low-level theta-e values. Have backed off a little on PoPs overnight but may need to continue trending them lower unless something more definitive develops upstream. Monday, larger-scale boundary should slide SE during the day and take sfc forcing and moisture out of the CWA by 00Z, however am concerned this front may push slower than forecast. Will likely tweak PoPs for tonight and Monday one more time before finalizing the forecast. Atlantic basin still indicates no tropical activity expected the next 7 days. SNELSON && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Some notable changes to the long term forecast are in store with this forecast update as models continue to struggle to come into agreement over the midweek system affecting the northern Gulf. This forecast update has daily rain and thunderstorm chances shifting further south than previous forecasts, relegating the best chances for precipitation in the CWA across south central Georgia. With the broad trough making its exit off the east coast, another shortwave embedded within the mid-level flow will swing through Wednesday and Thursday as weak surface cyclogenesis hugs the Gulf Coast. PoPs have also dropped off with this southward shift, where slight chance to low end chances for precipitation are now in play through the middle of the work week. Additionally, PWATs have have moderated back to 1.5-2.0+" as the surface low likely stays further south of our area. As the surface low begins to push northeast by the end of the week as a ridge builds in from the west, the chance for rain and thunderstorms will expand northward through the weekend. At this time, no significant severe weather impacts with storms are anticipated, though a few strong storms may be possible producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall. KAL && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions expected thru ~05Z after which time scattered SHRA/TSRA with bkn025 cigs and 3-5SM vsby may be moving thru north Georgia airports including KATL and KAHN. Still appears chance for these storms to make it to middle Georgia airports is too low to mention overnight. Sfc winds WNW 10-12kts with some gusts to 22kts 17-23Z this afternoon will decrease to 4-7kts after 02Z then become NW 7-10kts after 15Z Monday. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Low-Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA likelihood and timing. High confidence on all other elements. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 67 83 61 85 / 30 20 10 0 Atlanta 69 85 63 86 / 60 20 10 0 Blairsville 60 77 53 79 / 50 20 10 0 Cartersville 65 83 58 84 / 60 20 10 0 Columbus 73 90 67 90 / 10 30 10 0 Gainesville 67 82 60 84 / 60 20 10 0 Macon 72 89 66 90 / 10 30 20 10 Rome 66 85 59 85 / 50 10 10 0 Peachtree City 67 85 61 86 / 60 20 10 0 Vidalia 74 93 71 91 / 10 40 50 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....KAL AVIATION...SNELSON