Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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330 FXUS62 KFFC 261841 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 241 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A dry and hot day is ongoing with mid-afternoon temperatures well into the upper 90s and 100s. Fortunately, dewpoints remain anchored in the 50s across the majority of the area, preventing any extreme heat index readings this afternoon. With temperatures running 2-3 degrees above forecast by midday, highs were adjusted slightly upward for this afternoon, putting record daily high temperatures within reach at Atlanta and Macon. The vast majority of us will remain parched again today with only a rogue shower or thunderstorm possible through this evening given our dry and capped atmosphere. Some welcome changes are on the way for Thursday, however. A shortwave currently approaching the Tennessee Valley will shift eastward by Thursday morning into our area, setting the stage for much better rain chances than we`ve seen in a while. Moisture will surge substantially in advance of this feature with PWATs rapidly increasing from current ~1" to over 2" by tomorrow morning. Some showers and perhaps diminishing thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning with PoPs increasing first across west/northwest Georgia. Further development of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected by early afternoon as heating increases. Additionally, any MCV feature from earlier convection (as hinted by CAMs) would also provide further impetus for diurnally enhanced development. For this reason, high end chance to low end likely PoPs are being advertised on Thursday afternoon. No substantial severe risk is anticipated with forecast SBCAPE generally <1500 J/kg and weak lapse rates. More widespread cloud cover and convection will hold high temperatures to much more manageable levels on Thursday. Highs will be much closer to seasonal norms, generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with the 100s fortunately eliminated for the time being. RW && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 On the heels of a mid lvl shortwave crossing the area (Thursday), the upr high will quickly attempt to re-assert itself across the Southern Plains/Southeast region. A return to more typical humidity values will increase the heat risk through the weekend with heat indices expected to be in the 105-110F range for much of the area south/east of I-85 by Sunday. In addition to the heat/humidity, the chance for storms will increase by Sunday as a weakness in the upr ridge could send some energy across the area to aid in convective development. Drier air attempts to build in from the NW early next week with the threat for scattered storms remaining across much of central GA. The center of the upr high meanders back toward the SE region by mid week maintaining a hot pattern across the area. Temperatures by the middle of the week heading into 4th of July could be running 5-10F degrees above normal. DJN.83 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 113 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions will persist into tonight with FEW/SCT cu in the 6-9 kft range. Some potential for at least sct MVFR will increase after 12-15Z Thursday, particularly for ATL area sites. SHRA potential also increases after 12Z with SCT SHRA/TSRA coverage expected to be highest after 18Z Thursday. Winds will remain W to SW through the period at 4-8 kts. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence on Thursday morning cigs and precip timing Thursday. High confidence on other elements. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 92 71 92 / 10 50 40 50 Atlanta 75 89 74 92 / 20 60 30 40 Blairsville 68 83 67 85 / 20 50 20 50 Cartersville 71 88 71 92 / 20 50 20 40 Columbus 75 89 74 93 / 20 60 50 50 Gainesville 75 88 72 89 / 20 50 30 50 Macon 74 92 72 94 / 10 60 40 50 Rome 73 89 72 93 / 30 50 20 40 Peachtree City 73 89 71 93 / 20 60 30 40 Vidalia 75 94 75 97 / 20 60 40 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....DJN.83 AVIATION...RW