Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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107 FXUS62 KFFC 280004 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 804 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Thunderstorms continue to drift northward out of central GA along a sfc low assisted seabreeze. Thunderstorms are light and scattered along the line, though a rumble of thunder here and there is likely with these. Another broken line of small thunderstorms is moving south of I-20 along the boundary formed by cloud coverage this morning. These will likely continue to drift south until colliding with the southern line. Further thunderstorm development is likely between the lines as they near each other. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible across the rest of the area through the evening hours given our weak CAPE and assistance from the passing mid level trough. Precipitation values will likely remain below 0.5" in any place though locally higher amounts may be possible. Thunderstorms should begin to clear out with sunset as the daytime energy falls. A few showers may be possible overnight given the increased PWATS near 2.0" and weak lift. Scattered thunderstorms will likely pick back up late tomorrow morning. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be notably cooler than the past several days. Cloud coverage and precipitation will be the main drivers of this. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s and low 90s. SM && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Extended begins with a broad flat 500mb ridge axis extending from TX eastward across the SE into the Atlantic with an implied weakness in that axis across the SE states. The upper level system analyzed over AL today drifts south then northeastward across N. GA on Saturday all while continuing to weaken and become more diffuse. NBM guidance is aggressive with pops on Sat with 80-90 pops across N GA which may in part be due to 1) the lack of an suppressing ridge and 2) whats left of the remnant low. Deterministic runs wouldn`t necessarily support likely to def pops but do not have strong confidence to lower either given the factors in play including 2"+ pwats to work with. Additionally, what looked like a potential heat advisory kind of day yesterday (for Saturday) is now backed off considerably due to the expectation of more clouds/showers around. End result is lower max T/apparent T values. Will have to watch trends going into Saturday since Dpt values will be high thus trends in lower pops would result in higher apparent T values. By Sunday going into Monday, 500mb and 700mb ridge begin to amplify to the west across the ArklaTex region and extend east into the SE US. Pops on Sunday..for now are lower which when combined with mid 70 dpts will make for 105+ apparent T values...particularly SE zones. But similar to how the trend for Saturday has gone, will need to watch trends for clouds/shower chances as it seems to be the big heat advisory buster in recent years. During the day Monday a front sinks south on the eastern periphery of the ridge dragging some drier air with it into the state. Guidance is mixed on how far south the drier air pushes but it should result in a decent gradient of pops from lower values north to higher south across the frontal zone. Temps still warmer than average area wide, but again could be influenced heavily by showers/storms. Gradual warming trend Tue and Wed as upper ridge builds in across the SE states. Pops return to more climo to slightly below climo values. At the same time, attention may become more focused on 95L and where it may end up going as it should be somewhere in the Central Caribbean about this time. Strength/breakdown of the ridge over the SE and newly developing ridge over the western US will ultimately have an impact on whether the system turns northward or continues WNW. Stay tuned. 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 757 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions this evening. MCN/CSG may see -SHRA through 02Z. Most locations will see SCT 2-3kft cigs after 09z, but some terminals could experience periods of intermittent IFR cigs from 500-900ft between 10-14Z before improving to VFR. PROB30 for TSRA for all terminals generally between 18-00Z tomorrow. Winds will generally be calm/VRB overnight at 3KT or less picking up on the SE side at 5-6KT during the day. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on IFR cigs and TSRA timing. High confidence on remaining elements. KAB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 91 72 91 / 20 50 40 70 Atlanta 72 91 74 91 / 20 50 40 70 Blairsville 66 85 69 84 / 20 50 50 90 Cartersville 70 91 73 91 / 20 50 40 80 Columbus 74 93 74 93 / 30 60 40 60 Gainesville 71 88 74 89 / 20 50 50 80 Macon 71 93 73 94 / 30 60 40 60 Rome 71 93 74 93 / 10 40 30 80 Peachtree City 70 91 72 92 / 20 50 40 60 Vidalia 74 94 74 95 / 30 60 40 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...KAB