471
FXUS62 KFFC 190620
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
220 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The upper low over the Carolinas will open up within the broader E
Coast trough over the next 24 hours. The trough will shift slowly as
the upper ridge from TX to the lower OH Valley builds. At the
surface, a weak quasi-stationary front with several waves of low
pressure along across the S portion of the County Warning Area (CWA)
will sink S tonight. This front is firing off showers across the SE
CWA. A few thunderstorms are possible in that area prior to sunset.
Isolated showers are also occurring across the NE zones. A rumble of
thunder is possible there as well, particularly in the mountains.
Have adjusted cloud cover up for tonight over the NBM. However,
clouds are expected to generally thin through the night, although
some low clouds may thicken again toward daybreak across the NE. A
few showers are possible once again Thu afternoon in the NE
mountains. However, shower activity associated with the
aforementioned front should shift S of the area by then.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s in the NE
mountains to the upper 60s in the extreme SE. With less cloud cover
expected on Thu, high temperatures are expected to range from the mid
to upper 80s across most of the area, with some 70s in the NE
mountains. Low temperatures Thu night will be similar to tonight`s.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Key Messages:

- A small mention of rain around mid-week next week, otherwise, dry
conditions in the long term

- Temperatures will warm up through the weekend

Still a good bit uncertainty for the long term weather pattern with
this forecast update. The most notable change compared to the
previous forecast was slightly warmer daytime highs this weekend (+/-
2-4 degrees). This is owing to the departure of a surface low up the
East Coast and how quickly a surface high can take up residence
across the northeast. Again, there is still disparity among latest
ensemble (EPS/GEFS) runs with the features mentioned above. Elected
to not deviate too much from the previous forecast and still reflects
the scenario of the `delayed` onset of a wedge set up across the
northeast -- with forecast high temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s through the weekend. Once the wedge does settle into the region,
temperatures will cool off a bit. Rain could make a brief return late
next week but overall chances remain quite low.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions for all terminals currently. SCT IFR from 11-13Z at
metro sites with AHN seeing SCT IFR and MVFR vsbys earlier at
09Z. Will be improving from SCT 3-4kft through the day before
becoming FEW250 overnight. Light winds at 5KT or less will be out
of the NE.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on IFR at metro sites. High confidence on
remaining elements.

KAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  87  64  89 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         67  88  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     60  83  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    64  89  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        69  90  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     66  86  64  88 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           67  88  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            64  90  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  65  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         69  86  67  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...KAB