878
FXUS62 KFFC 171758
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
158 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The coastal low that pushed onshore Monday is currently spinning
over the Carolinas this morning. This low will slowly drift
eastward, bringing rain to parts of far northeast Georgia this
morning. Rain chances will generally taper off later this morning
before more diurnally driven shower activity returns to northeast
Georgia this afternoon as remnant moisture remains in place while
the system stalls out. Moisture wrapping around the low will produce
a cloud deck that will keep much of north Georgia under mostly
cloudy skies today. This will also keep high temperatures a bit
cooler across north Georgia compared to their southern counterparts.
Temperatures north of I-20 will be running in the upper 60s to low
80s while areas south will reach the mid to upper 80s today. With
much of the area remaining under cloud cover tonight, lows will
remain generally in the 60s. A few locations across far north
Georgia may also experience patchy dense fog, especially in low
lying areas. Tomorrow as we continue to deal with the low pressure
parked over the Carolinas, similar weather conditions will prevail.
With more moisture coinciding with some better instability
parameters tomorrow afternoon across far northeast Georgia, a chance
of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder is in the forecast.
Further to our south, a weak surface low will be moving along the
boundary through South Georgia, but any precipitation will have a
difficult time overcoming the drier continental air aloft in the dry
slot of the system over the Carolinas. For now, PoPs remain at a low
end slight chance for eastern central Georgia during the afternoon
hours.

KAB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Key Messages:

  - Quiet weather through much of the forecast.

  - Highs in the mid to upper 80s through the end of the week. Some
    cooling possible by Saturday/Sunday as wedge moves into the area.

Forecast Discussion:

The Potential Tropical Cyclone ended up being a bit more baroclinic
than barotropic in nature, and has developed a full vertically
stacked low that should be over the CWA at the beginning of the long
term. Outside of this though, the upper level flow is well removed
from the CWA, with large upper level ridge over the area. Without
much moisture to work with, and without a system to help draw
moisture into us, the long term looks to be pretty dry. Even the
ensembles have mostly removed any rain chances across east central
Georgia. No PoPs across the CWA as a result, with the exception of
some isolated chances in the mountains on Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures through the end of the week will warm into the mid to
upper 80s, and even a few 90s may be able to make an appearance.
With drier air around temps will still cool into the upper 50s to
mid 60s overnight. Going into Saturday/Sunday, another strong
surface high pressure is set to establish itself over the NE as a
complex upper level flow pattern sets up. This should push a CAD
event/wedge into the CWA, cooling things a bit, though given how
complex the upper level pattern looks, some uncertainty is
inherent in this.

Speaking of uncertainty, we won`t talk too much about what the GFS
is showing on the 00Z run into next week. What we will remind folks
of is that one run of one model is not truth, and that friends don`t
let friends share single model runs 10 days out on social media.
There are plenty of reasons to doubt what we are seeing in the model
at this point in time.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

MVFR ceilings rotating around the backside of the low center over
the Carolina`s. These clouds are mainly getting into the ATL/AHN
areas and affecting those TAF sites. BKN to OVC ceilings are
moving in but they are also slowly lifting into the VFR range.
Will see some more MVFR ceilings move in a few hours before
sunrise Wed but they should also lift and diminish by late Wed
morning. The light showers that were moving into the ATL area have
dissipated and not expecting anymore precip this period. Winds
are out of the W to NW and should stay there before turning to the
NE Wed afternoon. Wind speeds are in the 10-15kt range with gust
to 25kt. These speeds will diminish over night to 5kt or less and
stay 10kt or less Wed.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Confidence high on all elements.


01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  84  65  86 /  10  20   0  10
Atlanta         64  85  66  87 /  10  10   0   0
Blairsville     58  78  58  81 /  20  40   0  20
Cartersville    62  85  64  88 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus        66  88  67  89 /   0  10   0   0
Gainesville     63  83  65  85 /  10  20   0  10
Macon           65  88  65  88 /   0  10   0   0
Rome            63  86  64  88 /   0  10   0   0
Peachtree City  62  85  64  87 /   0  10   0   0
Vidalia         68  87  69  87 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAB
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...01