074
FXUS62 KFFC 161018
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
618 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 458 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As the forecast area is sandwiched between a surface low along the
Gulf coast and PTC 8 off the coast of the Carolinas, dry weather
conditions are expected today and for most locations tomorrow. With
a slot of dry air wrapping around the backside of the tropical
system off the Carolinas, the chance for precipitation is less than
10% areawide for today. As the system moves over the Carolinas over
the course of the short term period, rain chances for northeast
Georgia will increase slightly during the overnight hours, but only
to ~15-20%. Tomorrow, similar conditions will be on tap, though a
few diurnal showers may be possible across central Georgia and again
for northeast Georgia as the post tropical system stalls over the
Carolinas. Breezy easterly winds continue today with gusts up to 20
mph across north and eastern Georgia, but those will begin to
slacken overnight. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s
with temperatures a tad bit warmer tomorrow areawide. Overnight lows
will range from the mid 50s to low 60s.

KAB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 458 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Key Messages:

  - Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 (or whatever name it gets, if it
    gets one) exits to the north with little impacts to north and
    central Georgia by Tuesday Night.

  - Outside of some diurnally driven storm chances in mainly east
    central Georgia, dry week ahead.

Forecast Discussion:

The biggest game in town for the long term is what is left of PTC 8,
and most signs are pointing to it not affecting the CWA. By the
start of the long term on Tuesday night, the system should be well
dissipated with the only impact some potential moisture hanging
around eastern Georgia, especially if PTC 8 takes a more western
track as some of the guidance has suggested. Uncertainty is a bit
higher on this given guidance is likely struggling with
initialization of the system given it is more of an elongated trough
than a true low at this point, but even with the high uncertainty,
the impacts to north and central Georgia should remain minimal.

After this, from Wednesday through Friday we are caught in a bit of
a stagnant pattern, with little in the way of upper level flow to
bring any systems to the area. The air mass in place is actually
somewhat dry, so diurnal storms will be limited to mainly eastern
Georgia which has better access to the Atlantic moisture during the
evening hours. Skies should be mostly clear and high temps will warm
into the mid to upper 80s (and a few 90s may pop up). Lows will be
in the upper 50s to mid 60s thanks to clear skies, relatively lower
dewpoints, and real Fall actually looming around the corner with its
crisp mornings, changing leaves, and PSLs.

Going into the weekend, ensembles are liking the possibility of
another decent CAD event/wedge front diving into the CWA that will
have impacts such as cooler daytime highs and some increased rain
chances. The details around this will be important, as the
deterministic GFS, for instance, shows one possibility of another
coastal (non-tropical) low forming that could bring rain chances and
some windier conditions into the area by Sunday/Monday of next week.
We will need to see how the models begin to align before making more
confident predictions on rain chances.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR/MVFR conditions this am. Intermittent BKN MVFR is expected
through ~14Z before scattering out. VFR conditions expected
through remainder of the TAF period. Breezy easterly winds at
7-10KT will gust to 20KT through this afternoon. Winds will
slacken overnight to 5KT or less. Wind shift at KATL after 06Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

KAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  81  62  86 /  10  20  10  20
Atlanta         62  84  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
Blairsville     56  76  58  79 /  10  20  10  20
Cartersville    59  85  60  86 /   0  10  10  10
Columbus        64  86  65  87 /  10  20  10  20
Gainesville     63  81  63  84 /  10  10  10  20
Macon           62  86  65  88 /   0  10  10  20
Rome            61  86  61  87 /   0  10   0  10
Peachtree City  60  84  61  86 /   0  10  10  10
Vidalia         64  84  67  88 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAB
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...KAB