576
FXUS62 KFFC 221722
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
122 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

The ridge that`s been bringing our quiet weather over the last few
days will begin to break down with the axis pushing off to the east
as a potent low pressure system moves over the Great Lakes Region.
While the ridge breaks down today, generally quiet, dry, and warm
conditions are expected to persist. Despite a bit more cloud
coverage today compared to the mostly sunny skies earlier this week,
temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s in most areas
and into the 70s in higher elevations. Overnight, a weak system to
the west over the Tennessee Valley will stall out. Moisture aloft
will be advected into our forecast area and cloud coverage will
continue to increase. Overnight lows will be a bit elevated as a
result, where most locations will see temperatures in the upper 60s.
Thursday as a weak disturbance ripples within the 500mb flow and the
aforementioned boundary moves across Tennessee, the southern extent
of precipitation is expected to bring a chance of precipitation to
north Georgia. Scattered showers, as well as a few thunderstorms,
are currently forecast. With warm surface temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s, sufficient SBCAPE (~1000-1500 J/kg), 30-40kt of bulk
shear, and southerly flow bringing plentiful low-level moisture, a
few thunderstorms could become strong (where an isolated storm
cannot be ruled out at this time). As such, SPC has placed our
northern tier of counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for
severe weather with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard of
concern.

KAL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Much of the extended period will be characterized by an active and
progressive flow pattern. On Thursday night, a cold front advancing
through the Tennessee Valley will begin to stall as its occluded
parent low moves away into eastern Canada. A shortwave disturbance
traversing the upper level west-southwesterly flow will be moving
northeastward away from north Georgia and towards the Mid-Atlantic
coast, at which point showers and thunderstorms across the far
northern tier should diminish to isolated coverage overnight.
Morning low temperatures on Friday are expected to be in the mid to
upper 60s across the majority of the forecast area. By Friday
morning, dewpoints will similarly be in the mid to upper 60s, while
precipitable water values will climb to around 1.5 inches. The
relative lull in precipitation will be short-lived. By Friday
morning, the upper flow will become more zonally oriented and the
frontal boundary will become more elongated from west to east, and
stalling near the Georgia/Tennessee state line. A more robust
shortwave will traverse the westerlies across Alabama and into
Georgia on Friday. This setup is likely to bring more numerous
showers and thunderstorms to north Georgia on Friday, especially
where the wave overruns the stalled frontal boundary, providing a
focus for additional convection. At this time, at least chance PoPs
are forecast across the northern half of the forecast area by Friday
afternoon, with likely PoPs across the far northern tier.

With high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s in far north Georgia
to the low 90s in east-central Georgia will contribute to SCAPE
values as between as high as 1500-2000 J/kg during the peak heating
hours. Furthermore, with deep-layer bulk shear values between 30-40
kts, there is the possibility that a few storms could become strong,
capable of producing gusty winds and hail. Additional perturbations
will traverse the quasi-zonal upper flow this weekend. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are thus expected on both Saturday and
Sunday, with the highest chances during the afternoon each day where
diurnal instability will be greatest. PoPs each afternoon will range
from high-end chance to low-end likely in north Georgia, with lower
chances in central Georgia, although uncertainty remains with the
evolution and movement of the upper level disturbances. By late
Sunday, a shortwave trough and associated surface low moving
northeast from Missouri towards the Great Lakes will extend a cold
front into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Deep atmospheric
moisture will continue to increase in the warm sector late Sunday
into Monday. The cold front is forecast to enter far north Georgia
by Monday morning, where it will provide a focus for more organized
showers and thunderstorms which could produce severe weather and
locally heavy rain.

Rainfall totals through Monday are forecast to range from 1 to 2
inches roughly along and north of I-20, with lower amounts to the
south. It should be noted that with high PWATs, stronger storms that
occur could produce locally heavier amounts, which could cause
localized flooding concerns. High temperatures this weekend and into
Monday will range from the mid 80s across far north Georgia (where
cloud cover will be greatest) to the low 90s in central Georgia each
day. These highs will run mostly 4-8 degrees above climatological
normals.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. SCT cu in the
4-6 kft range will persist through the evening. Additional VFR cu
in the 4-6 kft range can be expected on Thursday. Iso/sct
SHRA/TSRA chances are expected to remain relegated north of TAF
sites across far north GA on Thurs PM. Wind direction will remain
SSW to SW through the period at speeds of 3-7 kts.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  87  68  88 /   0  20  20  30
Atlanta         68  88  69  88 /   0  10  10  30
Blairsville     62  80  62  81 /  10  30  30  60
Cartersville    66  88  66  88 /  10  20  20  40
Columbus        68  90  68  89 /   0  10  10  10
Gainesville     67  86  68  86 /  10  30  20  40
Macon           67  90  69  89 /   0  10  10  10
Rome            66  87  66  87 /  10  30  30  50
Peachtree City  67  89  67  88 /   0  10  10  20
Vidalia         68  90  70  91 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...RW