893
FXUS63 KFGF 280457
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1157 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms arrives Thursday
  into Thursday night, with a 50% chance for more than 0.50
  inches over this 48 hour period

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

There is still just enough elevated instability/marginal mid
level lapse rates with the passing shortwave trough that
additional light showers (and a few lighting strikes) are
moving through the region, with a more definitive end to rain
behind the mid level trough axis. Instability should continue to
diminish through midnight and what forcing is there should move
to the southeast, but for now I adjusted PoPs/Wx to account for
a slower end to rain/thunder northwest to southeast.

UPDATE
Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

RAP analysis already shows a decrease in low level lapse rates
and as the sun sets this should continue with MLCAPE rapidly
decreasing. Limited elevated instability/marginal mid level
lapse rates may still support a few lingering lighter showers
beyond sunset, but the bulk of activity should end by 03Z. The
had be a few marginal updrafts that supported smaller hail and a
few gusts in the last few hours but this threat has also started
to wan as shallower updrafts reflect decreasing instability
trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Another interesting day with boundaries and shortwaves pushing
through the FA. The first shortwave pushed south and east of the
FA by early afternoon, and it is now affecting south central
Minnesota. There is also a scattered line of showers and storms
from Devils Lake to Garrison to Watford City. This area saw a
little more sun today, so it has squeaked out about 500J/kg of
MLCAPE, but weak effective shear. Finally a secondary shortwave
was located over southern Manitoba, which will move across the
FA tonight into Tuesday morning. After this last shortwave moves
through there should finally be a couple of dry days as 500mb
ridging moves back in. As this ridge pushes east, rain chances
return again for Thursday and Thursday night, and possibly
Friday night into Saturday morning.

The regional radar clearly shows the activity around each of the
areas mentioned above. This activity is fairly scattered (30-50%
coverage) and will likely hang around well into the evening.
Model guidance is indicating another batch of lower clouds
dropping from southern Manitoba into the northern FA around
sunrise Tuesday. This area continues to slide southward through
the morning, as it slowly thins. This, along with fairly steady
northwest winds in the 5 to 10 mph range should prevent much fog
from forming. There should be more sun around by Wednesday, but
temperatures may only struggle to get back to normal (around
70F).

As mentioned above, the next round of rainfall will move from
west to east across the FA Thursday into Friday morning. This
has been pretty well advertised in the ensemble solutions. The
more notable change today is that there may well be a break in
the precipitation after this initial line of precipitation moves
through. Therefore, eastern North Dakota could dry out again
Thursday evening, and areas east of the Red River could too on
Friday. However, so far anticipated precipitation amounts
shouldn`t deviate too much from the mention above (50% chance
for more than 0.50 inches over a 48 hour period). Behind this,
there could be another wave for Friday night into Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected through 10Z across eastern ND and
northwest MN, with MVFR ceilings expected (low chance for IFR)
arriving northwest to southeast by 12-14Z, and expected to
gradually improve by midday Tuesday with daytime heating. VFR
is then expected to prevail from the afternoon into the evening.
Light northerly winds (less than 10 kt) may increase to around
12kt before decreasing again at sunset Tuesday as surface high
pressure continues to move through the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...DJR