Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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069 FXUS63 KFGF 251920 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 220 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Expect patchy frost along the Canadian border tonight as temperatures dip to around 35 degrees - The active pattern continues with chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and again Thursday to Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The stacked low over western Ontario will continue to lift slowly northward tonight, eventually stalling along the Manitoba and northwest Ontario border on Sunday. As another short wave crosses the FA Sunday night into Monday, the 500mb low along the Manitoba/northwest Ontario border will drop southeast behind it, reaching the Minnesota arrowhead late Monday night. 500mb ridging then builds in behind this, resulting in more normal highs for Wednesday and beyond (normal highs are around 70 now). The surface pressure pattern is very weak tonight, so expect winds to become light quickly by dark. Any lingering daytime clouds will thin out about the same time as well, setting up another chilly night. Went ahead and issued a Frost Advisory mainly for areas along the Canadian border, where the temperature should dip to around 35 degrees. It is still early in the season, but if people have sensitive plants, they should cover them if possible to protect them from the cold. The first wave will track through the FA mainly Sunday night into Monday. Showers and some embedded thunder will track from west to east across the FA during this period. With the absence of much instability/thunder, precipitation amounts should mainly be 0.10 to 0.20 inches, with some spots of 0.25 to 0.50 inches. There is more uncertainty with the second wave for Thursday to Saturday. This does appear to be deeper/stronger, but it also has the potential for wave interactions and multiple waves. Also, with return of slightly more normal temperatures (low 70s), there is the potential for a little more organized thunderstorm activity. At this point, the probabilities for more than 0.50 inches of rain are still fairly low (20-30 percent). As this period gets closer, will get a better idea on how it may unfold. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The biggest impact will be early on, with MVFR ceilings lingering near every site but KFAR and KBJI. This SCT-BKN cloud line is right on the edge of KDVL and KGFK, so will go with the SCT route for those two sites. However, KTVF is still within the thicker BKN020 ceilings, so will linger them through mid afternoon. Once these lift to the north, no impacts are expected. Winds speeds will become light after dark with minimal cloud cover. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ006>008-015- 016-054. MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ004>009. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Godon