Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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781 FXUS63 KFGF 250857 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 357 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern to continue with chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and again Thursday to Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 At 08z 500 mb low was over Lake of the Woods with surface just nearby in SE Manitoba. This system will continue to drift north along the Manitoba/Ontario border today with the south edge of clouds and light rain gradually edging north so that by this afternoon clouds and light rain chances are confined to parts of the Lake of the Woods. For the rest of the area, There will be some mid clouds from across SE ND into parts of WC MN. Some early morning sprinkles Wheaton and Elbow Lake will be done by 12z. The colder temps will also depart quickly and today will end up with highs upper 50s north to upper 60s south. West winds also gradually diminishing and noticeably less wind than on Friday. For temps starting out this early morning...clouds and wind keeping temps steady in the 34 to 39 range over northeast ND and NW MN. No actual frost occurring but temps in some areas remaining sub 36 thru 12/13z. Will do away with advisory when that occurs. Tonight will see a short wave move quickly east thru SD into central MN with a band of 700 mb frontogenesis and some instability (few hundred CAPE) just south of the our fcst area from Watertown to Alexandria area 00z-03z. Will keep our chance pops into our part of WC MN up to about Fergus Falls to in between Park Rapids and Wadena tonight. Sunday will start off chilly in the north part of the fcst area where skies mainly clear and winds under 10 mph. Fcst lows in the 35-39 range. Then increasing clouds from the west later Sunday with chance for showers and a few t-storms Sun night into Monday as a broad short wave and sfc low move thru. Precip amounts look more manageable with probs for more than 0.50 inch below 20 percent. Brief break and warm up mid week, esp Thursday, as upper ridge builds in but just in time for another potential slow moving upper trough to develop in Minnesota and give chances for showers and t-storms late Thursday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 IFR conditions prevail at KTVF and KBJI during the early overnight period, with MVFR CIGs developing around or just before sunrise. Light rain continues to move slowly out of the area, with some light snow still expected along the International Border. Winds are slowly diminishing, with most locations now seeing gusts mostly below 30 knots. Further improvement is expected by mid morning Saturday as cloud cover becomes more scattered, giving way to VFR conditions Saturday afternoon for all TAF sites. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-054. Flood Watch from late Sunday night through late Tuesday night for NDZ053. MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001-004-005- 007-008-013>015. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Lynch