890
FXUS63 KFGF 270437
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and weak thunderstorms tonight into Monday.

- Another round of rain late week with a 50% chance for more than
0.50 inches.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Showers with some embedded thunderstorms continue to push into
our eastern ND counties. Other than a few lightning strikes and
some brief downpours under the heavier cells, the activity
looks low impact and made only some minor changes to what we had
going.

UPDATE
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A few showers starting to enter the far western counties, with
some thunderstorms further west near the Missouri river that
will be coming in later tonight. Tweaked POPs a bit for current
radar trends, but no major changes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A few subtle ripples in the mid and low level water vapor imagery
can be noted through Montana and North Dakota with a more prominent
wave back in western North Dakota providing the primary forcing the
scattered showers currently in the central part of the state.
Another deeper wave can be noted in north central Montana which will
move off to the south of our area overnight with a cold front
trailing later in the day from the north associated with an upper
low in Ontario. The combination of these waves and diurnal heating
this afternoon should be enough to sustain the showers with the
movement of the waves. Currently looking like everyone will see
another 0.10-0.20 inches though pockets as high as 0.50 will be
possible with heavier cells and any embedded thunderstorms.

Unanimous agreement among models on ridging in the northern plains
for the mid week behind tomorrows cold front helping us dry out for
a few days, which will be much needed and help all this excess water
finally soak in and move through the river basins. A few smaller
tributaries have begun to crest at minor to near moderate flood
levels though a slowdown in the main wave should help limit river
rises as the water moves upstream through the main stem of the Red
River. The drier pattern will also allow us to be a bit warmer than
recent with highs in the 60s and 70s beyond Tuesday.

Though inevitably another broad trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest reaching the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday. 48 hour
probs for more than 0.50 inches land around 50 percent though
depending on the exact track of the low thunderstorm activity would
be expected which would more than likely bump these probs up.
Chances for more than 1 inch on a widespread scale are still below
20 percent. Both CSU ML and CWASP highlight areas at least near us
to the point we want to at least mention the possibility of some
stronger storms late week though there is enough uncertainty in the
evolution of the pattern to simply leave it at that.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions currently with showers entering our ND forecast
area. At this point, it seems that thunderstorm activity will
stay south of the TAF sites. Showers will push from west to
east through the overnight into the early morning hours. A cold
front pushing down into the region will shift winds to the
northwest and brings some MVFR ceilings to the region through
the morning and into portions of the afternoon hours before
improving late in the period. There will be a chance for showers
into the day on Monday but confidence not high enough to include
in the TAFs.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR