460
FXUS63 KFGF 102053
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
353 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening
  and overnight. The main threat will be lightning.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday
  afternoon and evening, especially in west central Minnesota
  and the southern Red River Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...Synopsis...

Several troughs and shortwaves are set to traverse the Northern
Plains in the coming days, with the first expected to bring rain and
isolated thunderstorms to the area this evening and tonight. There
will be minimal instability with this first system, with the
expectation of mainly embedded thunderstorms. For Tuesday, lingering
showers and storms move east of the area by around midday, with
shortwave ridging building in from west to east.

...Potentially Strong Storms Wednesday...

Our next trough moves into the area Wednesday following a brief
amplification of an H5 ridge late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
There are a number of possible scenarios that could unfold Wednesday
with impacts scaling with timing. Most guidance is now bringing the
best forcing through the area very early in the afternoon, which
would still allow for strong storms, but with lower coverage. CAPE
still has at least a 70 percent chance to exceed 2000 J/Kg,
primarily in west-central Minnesota and the southern Red River
Valley. Alternatively, a slower and deeper trough allows the H5
ridge to build into the area and bring additional moisture further
north Wednesday afternoon, thus expanding the area of potentially
severe thunderstorms well into northwest Minnesota and the central
Red River Valley. Shear will be favorable in both scenarios, with
low level (0-3 Km) shear upwards of 20-30 knots, and deep layer (0-6
Km) shear in the range of 50-60 knots. Model soundings have been
consistently showing dry air in the mid levels, both increasing
our lapse rates, and providing a favorable environment for RIJ
development. Overall, this would mainly be a wind threat,
associated with hybrid clusters and possibly line segments;
however, supercells could briefly develop early in the process.

Another shortwave and H5 upper low pushes through on Thursday, with
little instability to work with in the wake of Wednesday`s system.
Look for mainly embedded storms, with the possibility of an isolated
stronger storm during the early to mid afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions prevail this afternoon, with increasing cloud
cover and rain chances this evening and overnight. MVFR ceilings
are expected at all sites during the overnight hours following
shower activity as a weak shortwave traverses the region. Winds
this afternoon and evening remain out of the south to southwest
at 15 to 20 knots. Winds will shift following the passage of the
shortwave, becoming west to northwest Tuesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch