Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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885 FXUS63 KFGF 082342 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 642 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening with minimal impacts expected. - Another chance for showers and potentially strong thunderstorms on Wednesday. Confidence is low at this time regarding specific impacts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Any diurnally driven showers are either moving east of our area in MN or dissipating with CU field also showing clearing trends. Forecast is on track this evening and only minor adjustments were needed to capture near trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...Synopsis... A somewhat wavy/progressive H5 pattern prevails through the period, with several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Scattered showers are isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today as a shortwave moves across portions of western Ontario. Minimal instability and moisture is available with this system, and impacts are not expected. Heading into Monday, another slightly deeper shortwave traverses the area as an upper low moves from northwest to southeast across Manitoba. We can expect showers and mainly embedded thunderstorms due to minimal instability once more; however, moisture will be on the increase across the area, and a few heavier showers are possible late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. ...Potentially Strong Storms Wednesday... Looking ahead into next week, a deep trough is showing up in the majority of ensembles now, with good moisture return and instability ahead of it. There still remains a somewhat high level of uncertainty regarding timing; however, guidance has been consistent in showing strong deepening of the trough as it traverses the Northern Plains. SBCAPE has a 70% chance to exceed 1000 J/Kg across a large portion of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Shear is very strong in most sources of guidance; however, most of this is speed shear, with much lower values of directional shear. Soundings at this point suggest linear mode storms in a favorable environment to produce strong wind gusts. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND through the TAF period, with a low chance for a brief period of MVFR ceilings to develop Sunday morning in north central MN towards KBJI (chances too low to include at this point). Winds should continue to drop with sunset this evening and surface high pressure building to the north-northwest of the region (tendency for winds to be northerly). After sunrise daytime mixing should support sustained winds in the 12-15kt range with occasional gusts around or higher than 20kt Sunday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR