913
FXUS63 KFGF 082103
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
403 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and
  evening with minimal impacts expected.

- Another chance for showers and potentially strong
  thunderstorms on Wednesday. Confidence is low at this time
  regarding specific impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...Synopsis...

A somewhat wavy/progressive H5 pattern prevails through the period,
with several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Scattered
showers are isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today as a
shortwave moves across portions of western Ontario. Minimal
instability and moisture is available with this system, and impacts
are not expected.

Heading into Monday, another slightly deeper shortwave traverses the
area as an upper low moves from northwest to southeast across
Manitoba. We can expect showers and mainly embedded thunderstorms
due to minimal instability once more; however, moisture will be on
the increase across the area, and a few heavier showers are
possible late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

...Potentially Strong Storms Wednesday...

Looking ahead into next week, a deep trough is showing up in the
majority of ensembles now, with good moisture return and instability
ahead of it. There still remains a somewhat high level of
uncertainty regarding timing; however, guidance has been consistent
in showing strong deepening of the trough as it traverses the
Northern Plains. SBCAPE has a 70% chance to exceed 1000 J/Kg across
a large portion of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Shear
is very strong in most sources of guidance; however, most of this is
speed shear, with much lower values of directional shear. Soundings
at this point suggest linear mode storms in a favorable environment
to produce strong wind gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Look
for increasing CU during through the afternoon and early
evening, with a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms
along the International Border. West northwest winds early this
afternoon will gradually shift to the north during the late
evening and overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch