Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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639 FXUS63 KFGF 081740 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next more widespread rain and thunderstorm chance returns to the area late Monday into Monday night. Predictability is low for impacts. && UPDATE Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Clear skies prevail across the area this morning. Temperatures are on track, with low to middle 60s observed across the entire forecast area. Recent guidance continues to show low potential for isolated showers and storms this afternoon, primarily north of Hwy 2. UPDATE Issued at 705 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Skies clear at 12z. From CU rules likely enough moisture near 850 mb to generate some CU for the afternoon. Still looking at isold shower/t-storm mention in our north, but 06z model data is not suggesting much more than isolated coverage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...Synopsis... 500 mb short wave which brought light rain showers to the area Saturday afternoon and night is exiting the area with all showers moving out of the forecast area prior to 11z. In its wake will be a clear to partly cloudy sky to start the day and thru the morning. There is a short wave seen on water vapor moving west thru NW Ontario and this short wave is progged to drop back south tonight and into the Duluth area 12z Sunday. A weak surface boundary will accompany this upper wave. This boundary will move into southern Manitoba mid to late afternoon today and a couple hundred j/kg CAPE should be enough to generate isold shower or t-storms in S Manitoba and then move south into far NE ND and NW MN before activity dies off this evening. Airmass this system is moving into is very dry below 800 mb limiting any rainfall to a trace to a couple hundredths and that in isolated areas already mentioned. Mild today with highs low-mid 70s with a northwest wind 10-20 kts. Weak boundary moves south tonight and Sunday will see a north wind at 10-20 kts and cooler air at the sfc-850 mb move in, most noticeable in NW MN with highs on Sunday in the low-mid 60s. Dry conditions Sunday. Next week showing a system for Monday late into Monday night/early Tuesday. Then afterwards warmer air mid week and then potential for stormy conditions as we look ahead to next weekend, but much depends on position of upper ridge that is projected to build into the area and 500 mb trough to our west. ...More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances move in late Monday and Monday night... After a good deal of disagreement in past days in regards to Monday, better agreement with the 00z model suite and ensembles in showing next short wave moving in off the Pacific into Oregon and then Montana and northeast into SE Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba Monday night. Sfc low pressure will be located near the upper wave track with a boundary moving east into E ND Monday night and exiting NW/WC MN Tuesday. A period of likely pops with this system with WPC indicating average QPF in the 0.30 to 0.50 inch range. A few t-storms as well, but MU CAPE values remain very low (sub 200 j/kg) as it moves thru our area Monday night/early Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Look for increasing CU during through the afternoon and early evening, with a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms along the International Border. West northwest winds early this afternoon will gradually shift to the north during the late evening and overnight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Lynch