Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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497 FXUS63 KFGF 080247 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 947 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers to spread southeastward across the area this evening tapering off by late tonight. - More widespread storm chances return to the area late Monday into Monday night. Predictability is low for impacts && .UPDATE... Issued at 947 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Showers continue to slowly move south of the Highway 2 corridor, and adjusted POPs accordingly. No impacts from the light rain other than pretty rainbows. UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Showers producing some light rain mainly along the Highway 2 corridor, with minimal impacts. As the shortwave digs south later this evening there is still good agreement on some slightly more robust showers moving southeastward through the rest of the during the late evening and overnight. No instability to speak of so only impacts will be more light rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow pattern remains in place across the area with a shortwave trough dropping southeastward through the area from Saskatchewan tonight. This weak wave is slightly deepening/strengthening as it drops southeast with mainly mid level moisture present. Therefore some uncertainty into how much rain will reach the ground with the area of showers. However as the wave strengthens, expect more intense showers to develop with ok moisture advection present into the area by this evening. Therefore have increasing pops and confidence in showers into the evening hours across the central/southern portions of the forecast area this evening into the overnight hours. Little to no instability present, so left out any mention of thunder at this time. Large complex of low pressure area situated to the northwest and far northeast remains to the north with the northwest flow pattern into the weekend. A slow wobble to the south Saturday with another shortwave rotating around the western upper low to eject southeastward across the area Saturday. Again could see some additional isolated to scattered shower development in the afternoon hours. Some instability present with this wave, so an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the northeast/east. As that upper low continues to wobble southward it will merge with another area of low pressure moving ashore in the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies. This will start to develop more of a SW upper flow pattern across the area into early next week. This will bring in increasing low level moisture, return flow and a warm front lifting north across the area late Monday into Monday night. Overrunning may lead to some initial showers, with chances for more widespread showers/storms as the warm front lifts northward. Uncertainty in timing/strength of moisture return and warm frontal progress will determine the overall threat for storms and the predictability for strong to severe storms/impacts, etc. More of an active zonal flow pattern then sets up through the remainder of the week with overall low predictability in overall precipitation/storm chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions now and throughout the period. Line of showers near a KDVL to KGFK to KTVF line will push southeastward throughout the evening. Other than some brief drops in vis down to MVFR range under the heavier showers, not expecting any aviation impacts from the rain. Northwest winds gusting above 25 kts will settle down and shift to a more west then southwesterly direction overnight, before picking up again from the northwest with gusts above 20 kts tomorrow afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...MJB AVIATION...JR