445
FXUS63 KFGF 091509
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1009 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms Monday, minimal impacts expected.

- Chance for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday; confidence is low
for specific impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Northwest flow prevails this morning with cloud cover working
slowly southward into northwest Minnesota. Temperatures are
coolest near the Northwest Angle, where low 50s are still being
observed. Elsewhere, temperatures are generally in the upper
50s to low 60s.

UPDATE
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Looks like the clouds from Ontario will make their way slowly
into the northwestern part of Minnesota. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track for a quiet day today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...Synopsis...

Mid-level clouds are creeping into the area from the west and the
northeast this morning. No precipitation is expected with these. The
synoptic pattern is marked by several chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Firstly, a shortwave enters the area Monday into
Tuesday, followed by a trough mid-week with a mid-level jet over our
area. UL ridging builds in post trough for the weekend.

...Monday Precipitation...

Monday into Tuesday morning, showers and embedded thunderstorms in a
linear mode are expected from this shortwave. Moisture is more
readily available, with PWATs 1.25" to 1.5" in the area, but
instability continues to struggle as it did in previous guidance. As
for QPF, there`s a 40 - 60% chance of greater than or equal to
0.25", but <15% chance of >1" through Tuesday morning.

...Wednesday Severe Chances...

The next system to talk about brings the possibility of severe back
into our area. A deep trough with corresponding mid-level jet is
expected to traverse the area Wednesday morning into Thursday.
Guidance is struggling to decipher mode, impacts, and timing with
this. This could be why the chances for severe have markedly
decreased since yesterday, with SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg now only
at 35% in a small area in the southern Red River Valley. Regardless,
there is still the possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday into Thursday morning, and hopefully as the CAMs capture
the event in their timeframe, we will have more consistency and
answers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds will
increase midmorning to 13 - 15 knots, gusting around 20 - 25
knots out of the north. As we get into early Monday morning
(after 06z), winds will become light and variable as the shift
to the SE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...AH