177
FXUS63 KFGF 092032
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
332 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and
  evening with minimal impacts expected; however, a strong
  storm or two cannot be ruled out.

- Another chance for showers and potentially strong
  thunderstorms on Wednesday. Impacts will be dependent upon
  timing, with medium confidence in damaging wind gusts and
  lower confidence regarding tornado and hail potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...Synopsis...

An active pattern continues into next week as several troughs
traverse the region. Shortwave troughing and ridging oscillate
through the area, with H5 heights increasing this evening as an
upper low moves slowly eastward. Moisture is expected to increase
along a narrow ridge axis tonight into Monday morning, with a
shortwave expected to push across the area during the evening hours
and overnight into Tuesday morning. Showers and mainly embedded
thunderstorms are possible with this system, with perhaps an
isolated stronger storm capable of small hail and gusty winds. The
best chance for strong storms Monday evening will be west of the Red
River, mainly the Devils Lake area.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move east of the area by
midday Tuesday, with another H5 shortwave ridge building in
during the late evening and overnight hours.

...Potentially Strong Storms Wednesday...

Severe Potential for Wednesday afternoon into the late evening. The
synoptic pattern has a 700mb low pressure system sitting over the
great lakes area a transient ridge over us and another 700mb low
pressure system follow closely behind in Saskatchewan. The severe
potential will be tied to how amplified this ridge becomes over us
to advect enough warm air and moisture into the area. If the second
system speeds up and flatten the ridge the risk for severe storms
decreases. The NBM depicts an 80 percent chance for the maximum
temperature to be greater than or equal to 80 south of Grand Forks.

Global ensembles (GEFS, ECMWF, GEPS) depict a 50 percent probability
for CAPE to exceed 1000 j/kg south of Grand forks. Looking at
deterministic model skew T`s they currently show the potential for
severe storms between 18z and 03z. However, there is disagreement
between models on the storm mode which would alter the types of
hazards that could be present during this event. Some of the models
support tornadoes, however, there is much stronger support for
clusters or discrete storm mode. Another disagreement between models
and model runs. The mid level lapse rate will bounce between 7 and
8.0 degrees with a PWAT between 0.6 and 1.4 inches. These
inconsistent runs lowers confidence for the development of severe
storms on Wednesday.

Thursday morning, a second low pressure system makes its way through
our area to continue our chances for rain. Friday and Saturday looks
to be our needed break from the rain as a broader ridge moves over
our area. The later half of the week will be monitored closely to
determine the severe storm potential risk and any possible threats.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

MVFR conditions are being observed intermittently at KBJI and
KTVF with VFR CIGs elsewhere. North winds are expected to
continue through the remainder of the afternoon before becoming
light and variable overnight. Winds shift to the south to
southeast heading into Monday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch/MM
AVIATION...Lynch