918
FXUS63 KFGF 090833
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
333 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms Monday, minimal impacts expected.

- Chance for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday; confidence is low
for specific impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...Synopsis...

Mid-level clouds are creeping into the area from the west and the
northeast this morning. No precipitation is expected with these. The
synoptic pattern is marked by several chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Firstly, a shortwave enters the area Monday into
Tuesday, followed by a trough mid-week with a mid-level jet over our
area. UL ridging builds in post trough for the weekend.

...Monday Precipitation...

Monday into Tuesday morning, showers and embedded thunderstorms in a
linear mode are expected from this shortwave. Moisture is more
readily available, with PWATs 1.25" to 1.5" in the area, but
instability continues to struggle as it did in previous guidance. As
for QPF, there`s a 40 - 60% chance of greater than or equal to
0.25", but <15% chance of >1" through Tuesday morning.

...Wednesday Severe Chances...

The next system to talk about brings the possibility of severe back
into our area. A deep trough with corresponding mid-level jet is
expected to traverse the area Wednesday morning into Thursday.
Guidance is struggling to decipher mode, impacts, and timing with
this. This could be why the chances for severe have markedly
decreased since yesterday, with SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg now only
at 35% in a small area in the southern Red River Valley. Regardless,
there is still the possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday into Thursday morning, and hopefully as the CAMs capture
the event in their timeframe, we will have more consistency and
answers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND through the TAF
period, with a low chance for a brief period of MVFR ceilings
to develop Sunday morning in north central MN towards KBJI.
Chances are too low to include at this point, with guidance
trending away from KBJI at this time (more northeast). Light
northerly winds increase after sunrise (particularly towards
midday Sunday) with daytime mixing 12-15kt range with
occasional gusts around or higher than 20kt Sunday. Winds should
become light and variable or calm after sunset Sunday as surface
high pressure will be centered over our region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...DJR