221
FXUS63 KFGF 090425
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1125 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and
  evening with minimal impacts expected.

- Another chance for showers and potentially strong
  thunderstorms on Wednesday. Confidence is low at this time
  regarding specific impacts.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Skies and almost completely cleared in our area, with some mid
level clouds approaching from the west (currently in
central/western ND. Winds have decreased with lighter NW
currently being reported where they haven`t already gone calm,
again matching expected trends. Minor adjustments made, but
forecast is on track (no impacts tonight).

UPDATE
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Any diurnally driven showers are either moving east of our area
in MN or dissipating with CU field also showing clearing
trends. Forecast is on track this evening and only minor
adjustments were needed to capture near trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...Synopsis...

A somewhat wavy/progressive H5 pattern prevails through the period,
with several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Scattered
showers are isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today as a
shortwave moves across portions of western Ontario. Minimal
instability and moisture is available with this system, and impacts
are not expected.

Heading into Monday, another slightly deeper shortwave traverses the
area as an upper low moves from northwest to southeast across
Manitoba. We can expect showers and mainly embedded thunderstorms
due to minimal instability once more; however, moisture will be on
the increase across the area, and a few heavier showers are
possible late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

...Potentially Strong Storms Wednesday...

Looking ahead into next week, a deep trough is showing up in the
majority of ensembles now, with good moisture return and instability
ahead of it. There still remains a somewhat high level of
uncertainty regarding timing; however, guidance has been consistent
in showing strong deepening of the trough as it traverses the
Northern Plains. SBCAPE has a 70% chance to exceed 1000 J/Kg across
a large portion of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Shear
is very strong in most sources of guidance; however, most of this is
speed shear, with much lower values of directional shear. Soundings
at this point suggest linear mode storms in a favorable environment
to produce strong wind gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND through the TAF
period, with a low chance for a brief period of MVFR ceilings
to develop Sunday morning in north central MN towards KBJI.
Chances are too low to include at this point, with guidance
trending away from KBJI at this time (more northeast). Light
northerly winds increase after sunrise (particularly towards
midday Sunday) with daytime mixing 12-15kt range with
occasional gusts around or higher than 20kt Sunday. Winds should
become light and variable or calm after sunset Sunday as surface
high pressure will be centered over our region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR