702
FXUS63 KFGF 261134
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
634 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms over
  the Devils Lake basin Thursday evening, and across the region
  Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A heavy mist fell from these low stratus clouds at grand forks
and Bemidji with almost no associated radar reflectivity. Not
quite sure how much fell at Bemidji since the AWOS reported
moderate rainfall and then light rainfall but given no
reflectivity or any reports not quite sure I believe the
moderate rainfall reading. The low stratus should lift and
dissipate by the afternoon still as some cloud heights have
already begun to rise.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...Synopsis...

Today, High pressure system moves in from the west trapping moisture
in the lower levels to develop a low level stratus deck this
morning. Given the sun rises around 5am still, the cloud deck should
either lift or dissipate by the afternoon to give us some sunshine
in the late afternoon.

Thursday/Friday:

A 700mb trough starts making its way through North
Dakota in the morning but isn`t projected to reach the basin/valley
until that afternoon. SPC continued to leave the Devils lake Basin
in a Marginal risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather given
initiation has already started further west.

Friday is going to be more of our severe risk for our area. THe NBM
shows the probability of CWASP values greater than 60 at 50% in the
morning and increases it to above 90% by the afternoon. Dewpoints
are forecasted to be in the 60`s and 70`s friday allowing for
sufficient moisture content for any convection to utilize. THe 00z
runs of the global deterministic and the NAM all display effective 0-
6km bulk shear values of 30-50kts throughout the day Friday. Given
the upper low dives through the Northern plains, it wouldn`t be out
of the realm of for hail greater than a quarter and wind gust
exceeding 60 mph. Given the 0-3 SRH values are between 200-300
Tornadoes are probably going to still be possible given the synoptic
setup and long UH tracks suggesting persistent mesocyclone
development.

Flooding isn`t a concern right now given we have had a
break in heavy precipitation in 24-48hrs allowing topsoil to dry out
and the coastal spaces to be empty allowing for water to be
absorbed. NBM probs for greater than 1 inch is 40 to 60% North of
highway 2 and 30 or less south of Highway 200. To have flooding
concerns for our area I would want to see a large signal for 3
inches of rain and right now probs for greater than 3 inches is less
than 10%.

Saturday and later:

Starting Saturday the global models depict a more robust ridging
pattern to set up over the Northern plains. However, there is a
little disagreement on the placement of another low pressure moving
over Alberta during this time frame. So this suggest a break in our
active weather pattern may be put off for a more later date.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

This morning ceilings will fluctuate between MVFR and IFR as
this low level stratus deck starts to lift and dissipate as
mixing slowly starts to occur. By 18z VFR conditions are to be
expected clouds should be between 3000-4000ft by then. KFAR and
KGFK is gusty this morning due to some valley effect however the
winds may calm down by the afternoon. By 02z winds will become
variable as they switch from a northernly component to a more
southerly direction.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...MM