426
FXUS63 KFGF 201856
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
156 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for hazardous weather impacts is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...Synopsis...

As the surface high translates east overnight tonight, a
shortwave/cold front will begin to push through the area after
midnight. Showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, may cause
some minor impacts, however given very limited instability
impacts will be limited. Once showers exit as the front passes
through Saturday morning, winds will increase from the west.
Mixing potential is solid but winds aloft aren`t particularly
strong (850 winds around 40-50 knots at best), so wind advisory
potential appears fairly low at this time (20% chance). Having
said that, gusts to 40 mph can at least be expected tomorrow.

The remainder of the period will feature low probabilities for
hazardous weather as the upper flow pattern keeps the majority
of deeper moisture tagged to the Gulf. Heights based on
ensembles are pretty stable so expect at least some recovery
after cooler temperatures tomorrow but mostly seasonal
temperatures through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period. Winds will
increase as a front moves through the area overnight after 06z.
Showers may accompany this activity but confidence is too low to
add SHRA to the TAF at this time. Once the front exits the area,
ceilings will rise with winds increasing from the west. Wind
gusts towards the end of the TAF period are likely to exceed 25
knots, peaking after the TAF period in the afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Perroux