Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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166 FXUS65 KFGZ 212053 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 153 PM MST Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and periods of gusty southwest winds will continue through the week. && .DISCUSSION...As the trough that recently affected Arizona now heads into the Midwest, dry westerly flow remains in its wake. Mild temperatures, sunny skies, and relatively light winds are the implications for our area. Although the weather is quiet, several prescribed fires in the Flagstaff area either occurring now or planned for this week will create areas of smoke and haze. Those sensitive to poor air quality should exercise caution and avoid time outdoors in affected locations. Smoke settles near the surface after dark, so keep those windows shut to prevent the pervasive smell of smoke from entering your home. A kink in the upper level flow will bring an increase in southwest winds Thursday through Saturday. Gusts at the surface past 30 mph are forecast along and north of the Mogollon Rim each day through this period. Along with the continued dry air, critical fire weather conditions are possible in some areas. Global model guidance points to stronger ridging to develop over the Southwest next week. As a result, warmer temperatures are increasingly likely in Arizona. Just a reminder, we are headed into what is normally the hottest and driest time of year. With the lack of cloud cover and high sun angle, extreme UV index levels are a regular occurrence. Stay safe! && .AVIATION...Tuesday 21/18Z through Wednesday 22/18Z...Occasional MVFR conditions possible in vicinity of KFLG/KCMR from HZ/FU, otherwise VFR. Winds W/SW around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts before 02Z, then becoming light and variable. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 22/18Z through Friday 24/18Z...Occasional MVFR conditions possible in vicinity of KFLG/KCMR from HZ/FU, otherwise VFR. Winds SW 10-20 kts, gusting 20-30 kts each day from around 17Z to around 02Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...Dry conditions with mild temperatures. West/southwest winds 10-20 mph, becoming southwest on Wednesday. Winds will increase on Thursday with a few spots approaching critical fire weather conditions. Afternoon minimum RH values 8-18%. Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling temperatures through Saturday. Gusty southwest winds with gusts 30- 40 mph during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter winds returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20 percent expected each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Benji AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff