Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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804 FXUS65 KFGZ 250514 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1014 PM MST Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern Arizona through Saturday. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will arrive by Sunday, continuing through much of next week. && .UPDATE...It`s a quiet evening across northern Arizona. Expect cool temperatures, fair skies, and generally light winds to continue overnight. A 500mb trough axis is now located from central California northward through the Great Basin. This trough axis will sweep east through Arizona tomorrow. Expect one more day of cool temperatures and gusty winds before a ridge develops over the region. This ridge will set the stage for warmer temperatures and light winds next week. Tonight`s sky cover and wind forecasts were updated to best reflect the latest high resolution guidance. The rest of the forecast remains in good shape. && .PREV DISCUSSION /427 PM MST/...A shortwave trough continues its trek across the state, bringing breezy winds and seasonable temperatures to northern Arizona today. The journey seems to have left the system a bit tired, leading to the tighter pressure gradients and stronger winds being delayed until later this evening and overnight. This will help limit the strength of the afternoon wind gusts today. Expect breezy south-southwest winds with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. Winds remain elevated overnight for areas along and just downwind/northeast of high terrain. Temperatures cool briefly on Saturday, clocking in at near to five degrees below average. Despite the long haul, this elongated system will not provide a sip of refreshing water to dry northern Arizona during this leg of the race. Slightly stronger winds will impact northeast Arizona Saturday. With elevated winds gusts forecast to be between 30 to 40 mph, near critical fire weather conditions are expected, mainly for eastern and northeastern Arizona. Please practice caution if working or recreating outside this weekend. These winds have the potential to make a single spark go for a long run. Sunday into Next Week...High pressure will rapidly build over the region with an upper-level ridge forming across much of the western United States. A warming trend will accompany the ridge with each day seeing afternoon temperatures take slow, but steady steps upward. Average temperatures on Sunday afternoon will be close to average before becoming closer to five degrees above average for much of next week. Some models indicate another trough will displace the high pressure by the end of next week. However, other members show the ridge remaining in place, keeping the trough well north of Arizona. There is low certainty in what the weather pattern will look like a week from now. Regardless, the synoptic pattern is trending towards a more summer-like pattern in the long run. && .AVIATION...Saturday 25/06Z through Sunday 26/06Z...VFR with S-SW winds around 10 kts, becoming 10-20 kts with gusts 30-35 kts after 15Z. OUTLOOK...Sunday 26/06Z through Tuesday 28/06Z...VFR conditions expected. SW-W winds 5-15 kts on Sunday and Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Dry conditions with warming temperatures through the weekend. Near-critical fire weather conditions expected Saturday across the Little Colorado River Valley. Winds southwest 15-25 mph, with gusts 25-35 mph each afternoon. Minimum afternoon RH values 10-20%. Monday through Wednesday...Warming trend continues with dry conditions expected. Mainly southwest to west winds 10-20 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH values 5-15%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Benji/Mazon AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff