Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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670 FXUS65 KFGZ 172007 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 107 PM MST Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures and breezy conditions continue through the rest of this week. Mostly dry conditions are expected, with only a slight chance of showers late Friday over far northern Arizona. A benign weather pattern develops for next week. && .DISCUSSION...An unsettled, but mostly dry weather pattern looks to persist through this weekend with breezy afternoon winds and cool, below average temperatures each day. Southwest winds remain gusty this afternoon with the strongest winds (30-40 mph) being felt across the Little Colorado River Valley and portions of the Navajo Nation. The rain showers from earlier this morning across eastern Arizona have pushed out of the region with cloud cover beginning to clear. Fall is in the air this afternoon with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 60s/70s. Taking a look at current water vapor imagery, drier air continues to infiltrate from the west as a low pressure trough lifts towards the northeast. Given the drier air, clear skies, and calmer southeasterly winds expected overnight, plan on the coldest temperatures since spring with 30s/low 40s in the High Country and mid to upper 40s/low 50s for the lower elevations. Widespread freezes are not forecast at this time, besides for a few of our typically colder spots in northern Arizona, including Bellemont, Tusayan, North Rim, and Window Rock. Similar conditions are anticipated on Wednesday with slightly warmer temperatures and persistent breezy southwest winds, 15-30 mph. Confidence continues to increase in another low pressure system tracking along the West Coast and making its way inland across the Southwest for Thursday and into early Saturday. However with this trough, winds do not look as strong and conditions will remain mostly dry. Thursday and Friday will feature south to southwest winds 15-30 mph each afternoon coupled with cool, below average temperatures during the day and at night. As the area of low pressure begins to trek across the Southwest Friday into Saturday, slight chances for showers (15-30%) are forecast focused on northwest Coconino County...where the center of the low looks to pass allowing for some upslope flow to occur underneath the cold pool. Everywhere else can expect dry conditions to remain with minimal cloud cover. Temperatures begin a warming trend on Sunday, continuing into next week as heights increase from west to east. Ensemble guidance for next week suggests mostly weak flow over Arizona with seasonal temperatures and typical afternoon breezes. Confidence is high in regards to conditions remaining dry during this time with no significant precipitation events on the horizon. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 17/18Z through Wednesday 18/18Z...Some MVFR ceilings persist this morning along and east of a KSOW - KRQE line, but should clear by around 19Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue with southwest winds today 15-25 kts gusting 25-35 kts. Winds decrease to below 10 kts after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 18/18Z through Friday 20/18Z...VFR conditions are forecast. Wednesday and Thursday will see southwest winds at 10-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts. A few showers are possible across northwest Arizona late Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Thursday...Dry and breezy weather with below average temperatures will continue through Thursday. Daytime winds will be from the southwest around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Light winds will develop overnight. Friday through Sunday...Remaining cool, breezy and mostly dry. Another low pressure system could bring a few showers to far northern Arizona late Friday through early Saturday. Look for southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Friday, becoming lighter northerly winds over the weekend. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...LaGuardia AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...MCT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff